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Serrano FC vs Paduano EC

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Nascimento
51' Event
do Sul Bezerra M.
60' Event
Dowglas

AI Match Summary

The Carioca B1 2025 game between Serrano FC and Paduano EC finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Paduano EC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Serrano FC
20%
Draws
51%
Paduano EC
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Paduano EC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Paduano EC come out ahead of Serrano FC on wins alone.
  • Model gives Paduano EC a 51% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Carioca B1 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 54%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Serrano FC Clean Sheet 22%
Paduano EC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Serrano FC Paduano EC
Matches Played 30 26
Wins 10 11
Draws 10 4
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 0.93 1
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.04
Expected Goals (xG) 0.90 1.10
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2025 Carioca B1
Serrano FC vs Paduano EC
1:2
Nov 12, 2024 Carioca B1
Paduano EC vs Serrano FC
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Serrano FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Dowglas
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.69
Avg xA / game 0.45

Paduano EC Compare

Top Goalscorer Nascimento
1 Goals
Assists Leader do Sul Bezerra M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1
Avg xA / game 0.61

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Serrano FC 10 / 100
Paduano EC 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Serrano FC Paduano EC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Paduano EC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Serrano FC found the back of the net in 60% of recent matches (30 games).

Paduano EC let in goals in 65% of their last 26 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Serrano FC stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Serrano FC VS Paduano EC
1.13 Goals Scored 0.83
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.67
75% Over 1.5 33%
63% Over 2.5 33%
25% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

Serrano FC

(Home)
19 Sept
Audax RJ
0 : 1
Serrano FC
12 Sept
Serrano FC
0 : 0
Goytacaz
05 Sept
Niteroiense
2 : 0
Serrano FC
04 Jul
America RJ
5 : 0
Serrano FC
27 Jun
Serrano FC
0 : 3
Sao Goncalo
Page 1 of 6

Paduano EC

(Away)
20 Sept
Paduano EC
2 : 2
Barra Mansa
13 Sept
Serra Macaense
1 : 2
Paduano EC
06 Sept
Paduano EC
1 : 0
Santa Cruz RJ
30 Aug
Cardoso Moreira
1 : 0
Paduano EC
08 Nov
Niteroiense
5 : 1
Paduano EC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bonsucesso 11 6 4 1 14:7 22
2 Sao Cristovao 11 5 4 2 14:8 19
3 Serrano FC 11 5 3 3 14:11 18
4 Duque de Caxias 11 5 3 3 10:9 18
5 Niteroiense 11 4 4 3 16:14 16
6 Goncalense 11 5 1 5 11:9 16
7 Nova Cidade 11 4 4 3 9:9 16
8 Campo Grande 11 3 6 2 9:8 15
9 Artsul 11 3 4 4 11:10 13
10 AA Carapebus 11 3 3 5 6:13 12
11 Paduano EC 11 3 1 7 12:18 10
12 Friburguense 11 1 1 9 3:13 4
Promotion - Carioca B1 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B2 2025 (Main)