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Serrano vs Catuense

Brazil Brazil

Baiano 2 2010
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-1. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Serrano
15%
Draws
36%
Catuense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Serrano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Catuense haven't matched Serrano's recent run of results.
  • 49% — that's where the model lands on Serrano taking it.
  • Serrano have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Serrano, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Serrano Clean Sheet 19%
Catuense Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Serrano Catuense
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 8 6
Draws 6 9
Losses 17 15
Goals Scored 1.1 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.84 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2015 Baiano
Catuense vs Serrano
3:1
Feb 5, 2014 Baiano
Serrano vs Catuense
2:1
May 30, 2010 Baiano 2
Serrano vs Catuense
1:1
May 23, 2010 Baiano 2
Catuense vs Serrano
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Serrano 49 / 100
Catuense 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Serrano Catuense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Serrano Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Catuense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

Serrano scored in 74% of their last 31 games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Catuense lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Serrano VS Catuense
0.88 Goals Scored 0.75
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Serrano

(Home)
13 Sept
Central SC
3 : 0
Serrano
06 Sept
Serrano
3 : 1
Treze PB
30 Aug
Estanciano EC
3 : 1
Serrano
16 Aug
Serrano
0 : 1
Goianesia
02 Aug
Goianesia
0 : 0
Serrano
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Catuense

(Away)
11 Sept
EC Ypiranga
4 : 1
Catuense
07 Sept
Catuense
5 : 3
Juazeiro
03 Sept
Alagoinhas
1 : 0
Catuense
27 Aug
Atlantico EC
5 : 1
Catuense
20 Aug
Teixeira de Freitas
1 : 0
Catuense
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Juazeiro 6
Camacariense 2
Catuense 2
Serrano 3
Final
Juazeiro 4
Serrano 2