Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sertanense vs CD Rabo Peixe

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Da Costa Benevides R.
46' Event
Motty D.
63' Event
Correia P.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2023/2024 game between Sertanense and CD Rabo Peixe finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sertanense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Sertanense
20%
Draws
48%
CD Rabo Peixe
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: CD Rabo Peixe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

32% / Low Confidence
  • Sertanense haven't matched CD Rabo Peixe's recent run of results.
  • Sertanense are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Sertanense have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Sertanense Clean Sheet 68%
CD Rabo Peixe Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sertanense CD Rabo Peixe
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 7 9
Draws 11 6
Losses 14 15
Goals Scored 0.97 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.22 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 3.81 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 14, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
CD Rabo Peixe vs Sertanense
0:2
Sep 10, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Sertanense vs CD Rabo Peixe
3:2
Oct 16, 2022 Taça de Portugal
CD Rabo Peixe vs Sertanense
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sertanense Compare

Top Goalscorer Correia P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Meek N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.93
Avg xA / game 1.91

CD Rabo Peixe Compare

Top Goalscorer Da Costa Benevides R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Motty D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sertanense 95 / 100
CD Rabo Peixe 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sertanense CD Rabo Peixe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sertanense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: CD Rabo Peixe conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.33 goals.

CD Rabo Peixe lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Sertanense scored in 59% of their last 32 games.

Scoring Trends

Sertanense VS CD Rabo Peixe
0.63 Goals Scored 0
1 Goals Conceded 7
75% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 100%
0% Over 3.5 100%

Recent Form & Match History

Sertanense

(Home)
13 Sept
Sertanense
1 : 1
Malveira
30 Aug
Alcains
1 : 0
Sertanense
23 Aug
Sertanense
1 : 3
Mortagua FC
16 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 1
Sertanense
13 Apr
SB Castelo Branco
1 : 0
Sertanense
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CD Rabo Peixe

(Away)
07 Sept
Sacavenense
7 : 0
CD Rabo Peixe
21 Sept
Anadia
3 : 0
CD Rabo Peixe
07 Apr
Tomar
0 : 4
CD Rabo Peixe
24 Mar
CD Rabo Peixe
0 : 3
Alverca B
17 Mar
Mortagua FC
2 : 1
CD Rabo Peixe
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Santarem 26 17 4 5 52:23 55
2 SC Lusitania 26 15 6 5 40:22 51
3 Marinhense 26 15 5 6 43:26 50
4 Alverca B 26 11 6 9 34:19 39
5 Uniao de Coimbra 26 11 5 10 30:26 38
6 SB Castelo Branco 26 10 7 9 34:29 37
7 GD Peniche 26 11 4 11 28:39 37
8 Sertanense 26 10 7 9 26:25 37
9 Mortagua FC 26 10 7 9 30:36 37
10 GD Fontinhas 26 9 5 12 23:32 32
11 CD Rabo Peixe 26 8 6 12 30:34 28
12 Vitoria Sernache 26 5 10 11 17:30 25
13 CD Gouveia 26 5 6 15 35:48 21
14 Tomar 26 5 2 19 20:53 17
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Promotion Group 2023/2024 (Main)