Sport Picks
AI Match Summary
Sertanense in this Taça de Portugal 2007/2008 tie, finishing 5-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
80%
20%
0%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Sertanense
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
80%
/ Very High Confidence
- Form's been kind to Sertanense lately — more wins on the board than Fayal.
- 80% — that's where the model lands on Sertanense taking it.
- Sertanense have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Sertanense, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Sertanense Clean Sheet 20%
Fayal Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Sertanense | Fayal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 8 |
| Wins | 6 | 1 |
| Draws | 11 | 0 |
| Losses | 14 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 0.94 | 0.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.16 | 3.88 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 3.63 | 0.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Nov 18, 2007 Taça de Portugal
Sertanense vs Fayal
5:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Sertanense 85 / 100
Fayal 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Sertanense Fayal
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Sertanense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Fayal has conceded goals in 88% of their last 8 outings.
These sides typically produce 5.00 goals when they meet.
Difficult form: Fayal registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.
Sertanense found the back of the net in 55% of recent matches (31 games).
Scoring Trends
Sertanense VS Fayal
0.75 Goals Scored 0
0.88 Goals Conceded 6.5
75% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 100%
0% Over 3.5 100%
Recent Form & Match History
Sertanense
(Home) 27 Sept
O Elvas CAD
2 : 0 Sertanense
13 Sept
Sertanense
1 : 1 Malveira
30 Aug
Alcains
1 : 0 Sertanense
23 Aug
Sertanense
1 : 3 Mortagua FC
16 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 1 Sertanense
Page 1 of 7
13 Sept
Sertanense
1 : 1 Malveira
23 Aug
Sertanense
1 : 3 Mortagua FC
06 Apr
Sertanense
3 : 1 Alcains
16 Mar
Sertanense
0 : 2 Mortagua FC
02 Mar
Sertanense
0 : 0 O Elvas CAD
Page 1 of 3
Fayal
(Away) 06 Sept
GD Alcochetense
8 : 0 Fayal
14 Sept
Fayal
0 : 5 Olivais e Moscavide
27 Sept
Oriental Dragon
3 : 0 Fayal
08 Sept
Coutada
2 : 0 Fayal
16 Sept
Aguias do Moradal
6 : 1 Fayal
Page 1 of 2
06 Sept
GD Alcochetense
8 : 0 Fayal
27 Sept
Oriental Dragon
3 : 0 Fayal
08 Sept
Coutada
2 : 0 Fayal
16 Sept
Aguias do Moradal
6 : 1 Fayal
28 Aug
Sporting Ideal
2 : 0 Fayal
Page 1 of 2
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
FC Porto 2
Chaves 0
Real SC 0
Aves 1
Penafiel 2
Vizela 1
Portimonense 1
Sertanense 2
Leixoes 4
Torreense 0
Freamunde 0
Anadia 1
Juv. Evora 2
Infesta 1
Messinense 0
Gil Vicente 2
Naval 3
Serzedelo 0
TBD -
Boavista -
Olhanense 2
Carregado 1
Rebordosa 1
Rio Ave 6
Vitoria Guimaraes 1
Atletico CP 0
Cova De Piedade 0
Nacional 5
Leiria 2
Nelas 0
Operario 0
Vitoria Setubal 1
Benfica 3
Academica 1
SC Lusitania 1
Feirense 4
Abrantes 1
Monsanto 0
BSAD 2
Pacos Ferreira 3
Valdevez 1
CU Micaelense 0
Social Lamas 1
Tocha 2
Beira Mar 1
Torre De Moncorvo 0
Machico 0
Moreirense 4
Estrela da Amadora -
TBD -
UD Rio Maior 1
Fatima 2
Camacha 1
Sanjoanense 0
TBD -
Braga -
Maritimo -
TBD -
Mondinense 0
Oliveirense 4
Lagoa 3
Santa Clara 2
Louletano 0
Sporting CP 4
1/16-finals
FC Porto 2
Aves 0
Penafiel 1
Sertanense 2
Leixoes 1
Anadia 0
Juv. Evora 0
Gil Vicente 3
Naval 4
Boavista 1
Olhanense 3
Rio Ave 4
Vitoria Guimaraes 1
Nacional 0
Leiria 0
Vitoria Setubal 1
Benfica 1
Feirense 0
Abrantes 0
Pacos Ferreira 4
Valdevez 3
Tocha 1
Beira Mar 0
Moreirense 1
Estrela da Amadora 4
Fatima 2
Camacha 2
Braga 3
Maritimo 1
Oliveirense 0
Lagoa 0
Sporting CP 4
1/8-finals
FC Porto 4
Sertanense 0
Leixoes 0
Gil Vicente 1
Naval 3
Rio Ave 1
Vitoria Guimaraes 1
Vitoria Setubal 2
Benfica 4
Pacos Ferreira 1
Valdevez 0
Moreirense 3
Estrela da Amadora 1
Braga 0
Maritimo 1
Sporting CP 2
Quarter-finals
FC Porto 1
Gil Vicente 0
Naval 1
Vitoria Setubal 2
Benfica 2
Moreirense 0
Estrela da Amadora 0
Sporting CP 1
Semi-finals
FC Porto 3
Vitoria Setubal 0
Benfica 3
Sporting CP 5
Final
FC Porto 0
Sporting CP 2
