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Sertanense vs Nogueirense - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2018/2019
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Nogueirense in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2018/2019 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Nogueirense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Sertanense
35%
Draws
49%
Nogueirense
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Nogueirense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Nogueirense have won more games recently than Sertanense.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Sertanense Clean Sheet 19%
Nogueirense Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sertanense Nogueirense
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 4 8
Draws 13 9
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 0.72 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.22 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.27 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Nogueirense vs Sertanense
1:1
Apr 14, 2019 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Sertanense vs Nogueirense
1:2
Dec 2, 2018 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Nogueirense vs Sertanense
1:1
Mar 31, 2018 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Nogueirense vs Sertanense
2:2
Dec 3, 2017 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Sertanense vs Nogueirense
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sertanense 32 / 100
Nogueirense 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sertanense Nogueirense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nogueirense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nogueirense let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Sertanense's goal record stands at 56% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Sertanense has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sertanense VS Nogueirense
0.88 Goals Scored 1.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.67
63% Over 1.5 83%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Sertanense

(Home)
27 Sept
O Elvas CAD
2 : 0
Sertanense
13 Sept
Sertanense
1 : 1
Malveira
30 Aug
Alcains
1 : 0
Sertanense
23 Aug
Sertanense
1 : 3
Mortagua FC
16 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 1
Sertanense
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Nogueirense

(Away)
13 Sept
SB Castelo Branco
2 : 3
Nogueirense
06 Sept
Nogueirense
1 : 1
Uniao Da Serra
30 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 3
Naval 1893
23 Aug
Fazendense
3 : 3
Nogueirense
16 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 1
Sertanense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Leiria 34 24 3 7 59:24 75
2 Vilafranquense 34 21 9 4 56:22 72
3 Anadia 34 20 11 3 52:23 71
4 SB Castelo Branco 34 17 11 6 45:23 62
5 Sintrense 34 15 9 10 49:41 54
6 Oliveira Hospital 34 13 13 8 42:27 52
7 Alverca 34 14 9 11 39:33 51
8 Caldas SC 34 12 10 12 37:38 46
9 Oleiros 34 11 12 11 38:44 45
10 Torreense 34 11 11 12 36:36 44
11 Fatima 34 12 7 15 38:46 43
12 GS Loures 34 11 8 15 33:31 41
13 Sertanense 34 8 17 9 32:36 41
14 Nogueirense 34 11 8 15 32:39 41
15 Santa Iria 34 9 8 17 35:55 35
16 Alcains 34 5 8 21 21:48 23
17 GD Peniche 34 5 8 21 22:51 23
18 Macao 34 3 6 25 20:69 15
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2018/2019 (Play Offs)