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Sertaozinho vs Red Bull Brasil

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A3 2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Paulista A3 2023 game between Sertaozinho and Red Bull Brasil finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Red Bull Brasil.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Sertaozinho
20%
Draws
50%
Red Bull Brasil
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Red Bull Brasil

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Sertaozinho come out ahead of Red Bull Brasil on wins alone.
  • Red Bull Brasil are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Sertaozinho Clean Sheet 20%
Red Bull Brasil Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sertaozinho Red Bull Brasil
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 13 6
Draws 10 8
Losses 11 16
Goals Scored 1.15 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.18 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 21, 2023 Paulista A3
Sertaozinho vs Red Bull Brasil
1:2
May 6, 2021 Paulista A2
Sertaozinho vs Red Bull Brasil
1:1
Feb 16, 2020 Paulista A2
Red Bull Brasil vs Sertaozinho
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sertaozinho 12 / 100
Red Bull Brasil 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sertaozinho Red Bull Brasil

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Red Bull Brasil Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Red Bull Brasil conceded in 90% of 30 recent games.

Sertaozinho found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (34 games).

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Sertaozinho went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sertaozinho VS -
1.38 Goals Scored 0
1.38 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Sertaozinho

(Home)
15 Apr
Sao Jose EC
5 : 0
Sertaozinho
08 Apr
Sertaozinho
0 : 1
Ferroviaria
28 Mar
Sertaozinho
0 : 2
Juventus-SP
22 Mar
Juventus-SP
2 : 1
Sertaozinho
19 Mar
Ferroviaria
1 : 2
Sertaozinho
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Red Bull Brasil

(Away)
18 Mar
Red Bull Brasil
5 : 0
Barretos EC
11 Mar
Gremio Prudente
2 : 0
Red Bull Brasil
08 Mar
Capivariano
1 : 1
Red Bull Brasil
04 Mar
Red Bull Brasil
2 : 3
EC Sao Bernardo
01 Mar
Red Bull Brasil
1 : 1
Itapirense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Marilia 15 9 2 4 25:15 29
2 Sao Jose EC 15 8 3 4 13:12 27
3 Capivariano 15 7 6 2 28:11 27
4 Gremio Prudente 15 7 3 5 21:16 24
5 Desportivo 15 7 3 5 14:9 24
6 EC Sao Bernardo 15 7 1 7 17:16 22
7 Uniao Suzano 15 6 3 6 21:18 21
8 Matonense 15 6 2 7 21:18 20
9 Bandeirante 15 5 5 5 19:15 20
10 Red Bull Brasil 15 5 4 6 24:23 19
11 Rio Preto EC 15 5 4 6 15:21 19
12 Itapirense 15 4 7 4 11:17 19
13 Votuporanguense 15 4 5 6 14:19 17
14 Sertaozinho 15 5 1 9 15:26 16
15 Barretos EC 15 4 4 7 18:29 16
16 Audax-SP 15 3 3 9 8:19 12
Promotion - Paulista A3 2023 (Second stage)