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SESP Brasilia vs Sobradinho - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense 2 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Geovane
17' Event
Watthimen
29' Event
Geovane

AI Match Summary

Sobradinho in this Brasiliense 2 2024 tie, finishing 1-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
SESP Brasilia
30%
Draws
41%
Sobradinho
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sobradinho

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • SESP Brasilia haven't matched Sobradinho's recent run of results.
  • SESP Brasilia are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • Sobradinho arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Sobradinho, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Sobradinho have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 23%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
SESP Brasilia Clean Sheet 20%
Sobradinho Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SESP Brasilia Sobradinho
Matches Played 9 33
Wins 4 18
Draws 2 9
Losses 3 6
Goals Scored 1.22 2.12
Goals Conceded 0.78 0.79
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 1.11
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 20, 2024 Brasiliense 2
Sobradinho vs SESP Brasilia
3:0
Oct 12, 2024 Brasiliense 2
SESP Brasilia vs Sobradinho
1:2
Oct 5, 2024 Brasiliense 2
Sobradinho vs SESP Brasilia
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SESP Brasilia Compare

Top Goalscorer Watthimen
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.48

Sobradinho Compare

Top Goalscorer Geovane
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.62

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SESP Brasilia 36 / 100
Sobradinho 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SESP Brasilia Sobradinho

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: SESP Brasilia scored in 67% of their last 9 outings.

Defensive concern: Sobradinho conceded in 64% of 33 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.67 goals per match.

SESP Brasilia went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Sobradinho
0 Goals Scored 1.13
0 Goals Conceded 0.75
0% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

SESP Brasilia

(Home)
20 Oct
Sobradinho
3 : 0
SESP Brasilia
12 Oct
SESP Brasilia
1 : 2
Sobradinho
05 Oct
Sobradinho
1 : 1
SESP Brasilia
28 Sept
Legiao
0 : 1
SESP Brasilia
23 Sept
SESP Brasilia
0 : 0
Taguatinga
Page 1 of 2

Sobradinho

(Away)
21 Mar
Gama
1 : 0
Sobradinho
15 Mar
Samambaia
0 : 1
Sobradinho
08 Mar
Sobradinho
0 : 0
Samambaia
28 Feb
Sobradinho
1 : 0
Brasilia FC (DF)
22 Feb
Samambaia
3 : 0
Sobradinho
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Taguatinga 1
Legiao 2
Sobradinho 5
SESP Brasilia 1
Final
Legiao 1
Sobradinho 3