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Sestri Levante vs Celle Varazze - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A Giuseppe Sivori, Sestri Levante
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sestri Levante host Celle Varazze in the Serie D - Group A. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. Celle Varazze have shipped 1.55 goals a game lately, while Sestri Levante have conceded 1.09 and scored 1.38. Past meetings favor Sestri Levante slightly — 1-1-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 26, 2026, ending 1:0. Model xG sits at 1.44 vs 1.00, favoring Sestri Levante. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Sestri Levante
15%
Draws
0%
Celle Varazze
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sestri Levante

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Sestri Levante lately — more wins on the board than Celle Varazze.
  • Win probability leans Sestri Levante's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Sestri Levante Clean Sheet 20%
Celle Varazze Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sestri Levante Celle Varazze
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 13 9
Draws 8 5
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 1.38 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.09 1.55
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Serie D - Group A
Celle Varazze vs Sestri Levante
1:0
Dec 14, 2025 Serie D - Group A
Sestri Levante vs Celle Varazze
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sestri Levante 85 / 100
Celle Varazze 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sestri Levante Celle Varazze

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sestri Levante Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Celle Varazze lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Sestri Levante scored in 69% of their last 32 outings.

Defensive concern: Celle Varazze conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Scoring Trends

Sestri Levante VS Celle Varazze
1.25 Goals Scored 0.25
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
100% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Sestri Levante

(Home)
07 Oct
Sestri Levante
1 : 0
Pistoiese
04 Oct
Borgosesia Calcio
0 : 1
Sestri Levante
27 Sept
Sestri Levante
1 : 2
AS Biellese
20 Sept
GSD Lascaris
1 : 1
Sestri Levante
16 Sept
Sestri Levante
0 : 3
Fezzanese
Page 1 of 7

Celle Varazze

(Away)
07 Oct
Bra
2 : 0
Celle Varazze
04 Oct
Celle Varazze
0 : 4
Chisola
20 Sept
Celle Varazze
0 : 2
Ligorna
16 Sept
Saluzzo
3 : 1
Celle Varazze
12 Sept
Sanremese
1 : 0
Celle Varazze
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Alessandria 6 5 0 1 12:8 15
2 AS Biellese 6 4 2 0 12:5 14
3 Derthona FbC 6 3 2 1 7:6 11
4 Ligorna 6 3 1 2 11:10 10
5 Asti Calcio 6 3 1 2 8:7 10
6 Gozzano 6 3 1 2 8:7 10
7 Saluzzo 6 2 3 1 9:6 9
8 Millesimo 6 3 0 3 8:6 9
9 Chisola 6 2 2 2 9:7 8
10 Imperia Calcio 6 2 2 2 7:6 8
11 GSD Lascaris 6 2 2 2 4:7 8
12 Sanremese 6 2 2 2 9:7 8
13 Fezzanese 6 2 1 3 7:7 7
14 Sestri Levante 6 2 1 3 6:8 7
15 Borgosesia Calcio 6 1 3 2 5:7 6
16 Bra 6 1 2 3 4:7 5
17 Valenzana 6 1 1 4 7:10 4
18 Celle Varazze 6 0 0 6 1:13 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group A (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A (Play Out)