Sport Picks
Sestri Levante vs Derthona FbC
Italy
Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 Giuseppe Sivori, Sestri Levante 
Match Events
19'
19'
Lunghi G.
53'
53'
Klimavicius A.
57'
57'
Klimavicius A.
AI Match Summary
The Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 game between Sestri Levante and Derthona FbC finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sestri Levante.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
23%
30%
47%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Derthona FbC
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Sestri Levante come out ahead of Derthona FbC on wins alone.
- 47% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Sestri Levante have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Sestri Levante Clean Sheet 18%
Derthona FbC Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Sestri Levante | Derthona FbC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 9 |
| Draws | 6 | 7 |
| Losses | 11 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.43 | 0.9 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.21 | 1.24 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 11, 2026 Serie D - Group A
Sestri Levante vs Derthona FbC
4:0
Sep 14, 2025 Serie D - Group A
Derthona FbC vs Sestri Levante
1:3
Feb 12, 2023 Serie D - Group A
Sestri Levante vs Derthona FbC
2:0
Oct 9, 2022 Serie D - Group A
Derthona FbC vs Sestri Levante
0:3
Apr 27, 2022 Serie D - Group A
Sestri Levante vs Derthona FbC
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Sestri Levante Compare
Top Goalscorer Klimavicius A.
2 Goals Assists Leader Lunghi G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
Derthona FbC Compare
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Sestri Levante 36 / 100
Derthona FbC 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Sestri Levante Derthona FbC
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Derthona FbC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Sestri Levante scored in 71% of their last 28 outings.
Derthona FbC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.
Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.
Solid form: Sestri Levante remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Sestri Levante VS Derthona FbC
1.38 Goals Scored 1
1.63 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Sestri Levante
(Home) 04 Oct
Borgosesia Calcio
0 : 1 Sestri Levante
27 Sept
Sestri Levante
1 : 2 AS Biellese
20 Sept
GSD Lascaris
1 : 1 Sestri Levante
16 Sept
Sestri Levante
0 : 3 Fezzanese
13 Sept
Alessandria
2 : 1 Sestri Levante
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Sestri Levante
1 : 2 AS Biellese
16 Sept
Sestri Levante
0 : 3 Fezzanese
06 Sept
Sestri Levante
2 : 0 Asti Calcio
15 Aug
Sestri Levante
1 : 1 Genoa U20
10 Aug
Sestri Levante
0 : 3 Vado
Page 1 of 3
Derthona FbC
(Away) 04 Oct
Derthona FbC
1 : 3 Alessandria
27 Sept
Saluzzo
0 : 0 Derthona FbC
20 Sept
Derthona FbC
1 : 0 Millesimo
16 Sept
Ligorna
2 : 3 Derthona FbC
13 Sept
Derthona FbC
1 : 1 Imperia Calcio
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Saluzzo
0 : 0 Derthona FbC
16 Sept
Ligorna
2 : 3 Derthona FbC
06 Sept
Celle Varazze
0 : 1 Derthona FbC
03 May
Saluzzo
1 : 1 Derthona FbC
19 Apr
Varese FC
1 : 0 Derthona FbC
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vado | 34 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 69:24 | 78 |
| 2 | Ligorna | 34 | 21 | 9 | 4 | 64:26 | 72 |
| 3 | AS Biellese | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 48:29 | 57 |
| 4 | Varese FC | 34 | 16 | 8 | 10 | 43:43 | 56 |
| 5 | Chisola | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 44:36 | 55 |
| 6 | Sestri Levante | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 54:34 | 54 |
| 7 | Sanremese | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 37:30 | 49 |
| 8 | Valenzana | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 33:48 | 45 |
| 9 | Celle Varazze | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 41:47 | 44 |
| 10 | Saluzzo | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 48:44 | 43 |
| 11 | Club Milano | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 43:49 | 42 |
| 12 | Imperia Calcio | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 36:44 | 41 |
| 13 | Cairese | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 29:34 | 40 |
| 14 | Derthona FbC | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 36:46 | 40 |
| 15 | Gozzano | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 37:42 | 39 |
| 16 | Asti Calcio | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 32:42 | 35 |
| 17 | Lavagnese | 34 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 32:52 | 27 |
| 18 | NovaRomentin | 34 | 6 | 3 | 25 | 26:82 | 16 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Out)
