Sport Picks

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Shabana vs Sofapaka

Kenya Kenya

Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Nsugubo B.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Shabana and Sofapaka finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Shabana.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Shabana
35%
Draws
19%
Sofapaka
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Shabana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Shabana come out ahead of Sofapaka on wins alone.
  • Shabana are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24%
Shabana Clean Sheet 68%
Sofapaka Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shabana Sofapaka
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 13 2
Draws 9 9
Losses 10 19
Goals Scored 0.91 0.53
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2026 Premier League
Sofapaka vs Shabana
1:1
Jan 17, 2026 Premier League
Shabana vs Sofapaka
1:0
Jan 26, 2025 Premier League
Sofapaka vs Shabana
0:1
Oct 23, 2024 Premier League
Shabana vs Sofapaka
0:1
May 4, 2024 Premier League
Sofapaka vs Shabana
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shabana Compare

Top Goalscorer Nsugubo B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Sofapaka Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shabana 95 / 100
Sofapaka 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shabana Sofapaka

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SHA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Shabana scored in 72% of their last 32 outings.

Sofapaka let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Shabana went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Away concern: Sofapaka has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Shabana VS Sofapaka
0.5 Goals Scored 0.5
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
25% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Shabana

(Home)
31 May
Shabana
1 : 2
KCB
24 May
Sofapaka
1 : 1
Shabana
17 May
Bidco United
0 : 1
Shabana
13 May
Mara Sugar
1 : 0
Shabana
09 May
Shabana
0 : 0
Ulinzi Stars
Page 1 of 7

Sofapaka

(Away)
31 May
Kariobangi Sharks
6 : 0
Sofapaka
27 May
Sofapaka
1 : 2
KCB
24 May
Sofapaka
1 : 1
Shabana
11 May
Posta Rangers
3 : 0
Sofapaka
02 May
Sofapaka
2 : 2
Mathare United
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mahia 34 20 9 5 50:22 69
2 Leopards 34 19 7 8 44:28 64
3 Police FC 34 13 16 5 31:21 55
4 Nairobi United 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
5 Shabana 34 14 10 10 35:34 52
6 Kakamega Homeboyz 34 12 13 9 47:37 49
7 KCB 34 13 9 12 36:37 48
8 Muranga 34 13 8 13 42:41 47
9 Tusker 34 13 6 15 27:32 45
10 APS Bomet 34 11 11 12 37:35 44
11 Mara Sugar 34 10 14 10 30:30 44
12 Bandari 34 9 17 8 26:26 44
13 Ulinzi Stars 34 11 8 15 34:37 41
14 Mathare United 34 11 8 15 31:35 41
15 Posta Rangers 34 9 13 12 31:40 40
16 Kariobangi Sharks 34 8 14 12 30:33 38
17 Bidco United 34 5 12 17 19:40 27
18 Sofapaka 34 3 10 21 19:51 19
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Relegation - Super League 2026/2027 (Main)