Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Shakhter Karagandy vs Arys

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

First League
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Mansurov B.
Assist: Imanali M.
29' Event
Nurmugamet R.
Assist: Kalybayev D.
77' Event
Litosh A.
Assist: Akimov R.

AI Match Summary

Shakhter Karagandy in this First League matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Shakhter Karagandy.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Shakhter Karagandy
20%
Draws
35%
Arys
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Shakhter Karagandy

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Shakhter Karagandy have won more games recently than Arys.
  • Model gives Shakhter Karagandy a 45% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Shakhter Karagandy Clean Sheet 68%
Arys Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shakhter Karagandy Arys
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 24 7
Draws 3 4
Losses 3 19
Goals Scored 2.7 1.17
Goals Conceded 0.5 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 24, 2026 First League
Shakhter Karagandy vs Arys
4:1
Apr 23, 2026 First League
Arys vs Shakhter Karagandy
0:6

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shakhter Karagandy Compare

Top Goalscorer Litosh A.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Nurmugamet R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Arys Compare

Top Goalscorer Mansurov B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shakhter Karagandy 95 / 100
Arys 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shakhter Karagandy Arys

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Shakhter Karagandy Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 4:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Shakhter Karagandy's goal record stands at 93% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Arys conceded in 93% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 5.50 goals.

Shakhter Karagandy has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Shakhter Karagandy VS Arys
2.88 Goals Scored 1
0.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Shakhter Karagandy

(Home)
17 Sept
Shakhter Karagandy
0 : 0
Taraz
11 Sept
Jaiyq
1 : 2
Shakhter Karagandy
03 Sept
Shakhter Karagandy
4 : 0
Khan Tengri
27 Aug
Yelimay Semey 2
0 : 3
Shakhter Karagandy
21 Aug
Shakhter Karagandy
4 : 0
FC Astana 2
Page 1 of 6

Arys

(Away)
17 Sept
Arys
4 : 1
Aktobe 2
11 Sept
Kaspij Aktau 2
1 : 2
Arys
03 Sept
Arys
3 : 1
FC Ekibastuz
27 Aug
Kairat Almaty 2
1 : 0
Arys
20 Aug
Arys
1 : 1
Taraz
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Shakhter Karagandy 23 20 2 1 64:8 62
2 Kairat Almaty 2 23 17 5 1 66:12 56
3 Turan 23 16 2 5 51:21 50
4 Akademiya Ontustik 23 13 4 6 36:27 43
5 FC Astana 2 23 10 3 10 42:43 33
6 Jaiyq 23 9 4 10 21:26 31
7 Taraz 23 8 6 9 30:32 30
8 FC Ekibastuz 23 7 5 11 31:53 26
9 Kaspij Aktau 2 23 7 4 12 29:41 25
10 Khan Tengri 23 7 4 12 29:44 25
11 Arys 23 7 3 13 29:43 24
12 Aktobe 2 23 6 5 12 38:69 23
13 Tobol 2 23 4 4 15 40:57 16
14 Yelimay Semey 2 23 3 3 17 17:47 12
Promotion - Premier League 2027 (Main)