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Shakhter Karagandy vs FC Ekibastuz

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

First League 2025 Shakhter Stadion
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Galkin M.
Assist: Sagnaev S.
27'
Orazbek A.
42' Event
Galkin M.
Assist: Nusip A.

AI Match Summary

Shakhter Karagandy in this First League 2025 matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Shakhter Karagandy.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Shakhter Karagandy
6%
Draws
4%
FC Ekibastuz
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Shakhter Karagandy

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Shakhter Karagandy have won more games recently than FC Ekibastuz.
  • Shakhter Karagandy are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Shakhter Karagandy Clean Sheet 20%
FC Ekibastuz Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shakhter Karagandy FC Ekibastuz
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 21 10
Draws 4 6
Losses 6 14
Goals Scored 2.75 1.5
Goals Conceded 0.63 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 2.75 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 17, 2026 First League
Shakhter Karagandy vs FC Ekibastuz
4:0
Aug 8, 2025 First League
Shakhter Karagandy vs FC Ekibastuz
4:0
May 9, 2025 First League
FC Ekibastuz vs Shakhter Karagandy
2:2
Apr 24, 2009 Kazakhstan Cup
Shakhter Karagandy vs FC Ekibastuz
3:1
Jul 12, 2008 Premier League
FC Ekibastuz vs Shakhter Karagandy
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shakhter Karagandy Compare

Top Goalscorer Galkin M.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Litosh A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.12
Avg xA / game 1.38

FC Ekibastuz Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shakhter Karagandy 85 / 100
FC Ekibastuz 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shakhter Karagandy FC Ekibastuz

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SHA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Shakhter Karagandy scored in 94% of their last 31 games.

FC Ekibastuz's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Recent resilience: Shakhter Karagandy stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Shakhter Karagandy VS FC Ekibastuz
2.75 Goals Scored 1.5
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Kaspij Aktau26222274:2768
2Ertis Pavlodar26194371:2061
3Altai26174554:2355
4Shakhter Karagandy26165561:3453
5Zhetisay261331044:3542
6Kairat Almaty 2261241058:4240
7Akademiya Ontustik261231144:4439
8Taraz261051143:3835
9AKAS261031342:3933
10FC Ekibastuz26841436:6028
11SD Family26721733:7523
12Khan Tengri26531827:5518
13Aktobe 226371634:6516
14Turkistan26232116:809