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Shakhter Karagandy vs Jaiyq - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

First League
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Migunov A.
Assist: Vasilchenko D.
36' Event
Ulshin A.
Assist: Litosh A.
83' Event
Litosh A.
Assist: Nazarov D.

AI Match Summary

The First League game between Shakhter Karagandy and Jaiyq finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Shakhter Karagandy.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Shakhter Karagandy
30%
Draws
19%
Jaiyq
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Shakhter Karagandy

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Shakhter Karagandy come out ahead of Jaiyq on wins alone.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Shakhter Karagandy taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22.8%
Shakhter Karagandy Clean Sheet 68%
Jaiyq Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shakhter Karagandy Jaiyq
Matches Played 30 24
Wins 25 9
Draws 2 4
Losses 3 11
Goals Scored 2.73 0.92
Goals Conceded 0.47 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 11, 2026 First League
Jaiyq vs Shakhter Karagandy
1:2
Jun 19, 2026 First League
Shakhter Karagandy vs Jaiyq
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shakhter Karagandy Compare

Top Goalscorer Migunov A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ulshin A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Jaiyq Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shakhter Karagandy 95 / 100
Jaiyq 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shakhter Karagandy Jaiyq

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Shakhter Karagandy Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Shakhter Karagandy's goal record stands at 93% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: Shakhter Karagandy stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Defensive concern: Jaiyq conceded in 58% of 24 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Shakhter Karagandy VS Jaiyq
3.25 Goals Scored 1.25
0.38 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Shakhter Karagandy

(Home)
08 Oct
Shakhter Karagandy
2 : 0
Akademiya Ontustik
17 Sept
Shakhter Karagandy
0 : 0
Taraz
11 Sept
Jaiyq
1 : 2
Shakhter Karagandy
03 Sept
Shakhter Karagandy
4 : 0
Khan Tengri
27 Aug
Yelimay Semey 2
0 : 3
Shakhter Karagandy
Page 1 of 6

Jaiyq

(Away)
17 Sept
Akademiya Ontustik
0 : 0
Jaiyq
11 Sept
Jaiyq
1 : 2
Shakhter Karagandy
04 Sept
Jaiyq
2 : 0
Yelimay Semey 2
28 Aug
Aktobe 2
1 : 0
Jaiyq
21 Aug
Jaiyq
0 : 0
Kaspij Aktau 2
Page 1 of 5

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Shakhter Karagandy 24 21 2 1 66:8 65
2 Kairat Almaty 2 23 17 5 1 66:12 56
3 Turan 23 16 2 5 51:21 50
4 Akademiya Ontustik 24 13 4 7 36:29 43
5 FC Astana 2 24 10 3 11 42:49 33
6 Jaiyq 23 9 4 10 21:26 31
7 Taraz 23 8 6 9 30:32 30
8 Kaspij Aktau 2 24 8 4 12 35:41 28
9 Arys 24 8 3 13 32:45 27
10 FC Ekibastuz 23 7 5 11 31:53 26
11 Khan Tengri 23 7 4 12 29:44 25
12 Aktobe 2 24 6 6 12 42:73 24
13 Tobol 2 24 4 5 15 44:61 17
14 Yelimay Semey 2 24 3 3 18 19:50 12
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