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Shakhter Karagandy vs Kaspij Aktau 2

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

First League
Our Tip

Match Events

71'
Zhumabay E.
71'
Zhumabay E.
84' Event
Ulshin A.

AI Match Summary

The First League game between Shakhter Karagandy and Kaspij Aktau 2 finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Shakhter Karagandy.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

74%
Shakhter Karagandy
20%
Draws
6%
Kaspij Aktau 2
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Shakhter Karagandy

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / High Confidence
  • Shakhter Karagandy carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Shakhter Karagandy are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular First League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.2%
Shakhter Karagandy Clean Sheet 20%
Kaspij Aktau 2 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shakhter Karagandy Kaspij Aktau 2
Matches Played 30 23
Wins 24 7
Draws 3 4
Losses 3 12
Goals Scored 2.7 1.26
Goals Conceded 0.5 1.78
Expected Goals (xG) 2.31 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 6, 2026 First League
Shakhter Karagandy vs Kaspij Aktau 2
1:0
May 7, 2026 First League
Kaspij Aktau 2 vs Shakhter Karagandy
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shakhter Karagandy Compare

Top Goalscorer Ulshin A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.78
Avg xA / game 1.16

Kaspij Aktau 2 Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shakhter Karagandy 85 / 100
Kaspij Aktau 2 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shakhter Karagandy Kaspij Aktau 2

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Shakhter Karagandy Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Shakhter Karagandy scored in 93% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Kaspij Aktau 2 conceded in 83% of 23 recent games.

Shakhter Karagandy has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.50 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Shakhter Karagandy VS Kaspij Aktau 2
2.88 Goals Scored 1.5
0.25 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Shakhter Karagandy

(Home)
17 Sept
Shakhter Karagandy
0 : 0
Taraz
11 Sept
Jaiyq
1 : 2
Shakhter Karagandy
03 Sept
Shakhter Karagandy
4 : 0
Khan Tengri
27 Aug
Yelimay Semey 2
0 : 3
Shakhter Karagandy
21 Aug
Shakhter Karagandy
4 : 0
FC Astana 2
Page 1 of 6

Kaspij Aktau 2

(Away)
19 Sept
Tobol 2
3 : 0
Kaspij Aktau 2
11 Sept
Kaspij Aktau 2
1 : 2
Arys
04 Sept
Kaspij Aktau 2
0 : 3
Turan
27 Aug
Kaspij Aktau 2
1 : 2
Akademiya Ontustik
21 Aug
Jaiyq
0 : 0
Kaspij Aktau 2
Page 1 of 5

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Shakhter Karagandy 23 20 2 1 64:8 62
2 Kairat Almaty 2 23 17 5 1 66:12 56
3 Turan 23 16 2 5 51:21 50
4 Akademiya Ontustik 23 13 4 6 36:27 43
5 FC Astana 2 23 10 3 10 42:43 33
6 Jaiyq 23 9 4 10 21:26 31
7 Taraz 23 8 6 9 30:32 30
8 FC Ekibastuz 23 7 5 11 31:53 26
9 Kaspij Aktau 2 23 7 4 12 29:41 25
10 Khan Tengri 23 7 4 12 29:44 25
11 Arys 23 7 3 13 29:43 24
12 Aktobe 2 23 6 5 12 38:69 23
13 Tobol 2 23 4 4 15 40:57 16
14 Yelimay Semey 2 23 3 3 17 17:47 12
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