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Shamakhi vs Kapaz

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Premier League 2025/2026 Shamakhi City Stadium, Shamakhi
Our Tip

Match Events

4'
Huseynli R.
21'
Pachu
28'
Seyidov S.

AI Match Summary

Shamakhi in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Shamakhi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Shamakhi
15%
Draws
42%
Kapaz
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Shamakhi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Shamakhi have won more games recently than Kapaz.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
Shamakhi Clean Sheet 21%
Kapaz Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shamakhi Kapaz
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 10 8
Draws 7 4
Losses 11 17
Goals Scored 0.93 0.69
Goals Conceded 1.18 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Premier League
Shamakhi vs Kapaz
2:0
Jan 31, 2026 Premier League
Kapaz vs Shamakhi
0:2
Oct 17, 2025 Premier League
Shamakhi vs Kapaz
1:4
Apr 20, 2025 Premier League
Shamakhi vs Kapaz
2:1
Feb 17, 2025 Premier League
Kapaz vs Shamakhi
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shamakhi Compare

Top Goalscorer Apolinario R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tircoveanu A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Kapaz Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shamakhi 32 / 100
Kapaz 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shamakhi Kapaz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kapaz Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Shamakhi's goal record stands at 61% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Kapaz has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: Kapaz registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Shamakhi VS Kapaz
0.88 Goals Scored 0.63
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Shamakhi

(Home)
21 May
Gabala
3 : 1
Shamakhi
16 May
Shamakhi
3 : 2
Turan
10 May
Neftci Baku
3 : 0
Shamakhi
03 May
Shamakhi
0 : 3
Sabah Baku
26 Apr
Shamakhi
2 : 0
Kapaz
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Kapaz

(Away)
15 Aug
Sabah Baku
2 : 0
Kapaz
23 May
Kapaz
0 : 1
Neftci Baku
15 May
Araz PFK
2 : 0
Kapaz
08 May
Sabah Baku
0 : 1
Kapaz
02 May
Kapaz
2 : 1
SumQayit FK
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sabah Baku 33 24 6 3 75:25 78
2 Qarabag Agdam 33 21 6 6 71:27 69
3 Turan 33 17 8 8 44:27 59
4 Neftci Baku 33 16 11 6 57:32 59
5 Zira FK 33 13 14 6 43:36 53
6 Araz PFK 33 13 7 13 44:58 46
7 SumQayit FK 33 12 5 16 45:49 41
8 Shamakhi 33 9 11 13 31:40 38
9 Imisli FK 33 7 13 13 23:43 34
10 Kapaz 33 8 3 22 25:61 27
11 Gabala 33 7 6 20 32:49 27
12 Karvan 33 3 6 24 23:66 15
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - I Liqa (Main)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)