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Shan United vs Mahar United - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Myanmar Myanmar

National League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Hein Khun Kyaw Zin
66' Event
Gilles P.
84' Event
Ko Sa Aung Pyae

AI Match Summary

The National League 2025/2026 game between Shan United and Mahar United finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Shan United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Shan United
15%
Draws
32%
Mahar United
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Shan United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Shan United carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Shan United's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Shan United here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Shan United Clean Sheet 68%
Mahar United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shan United Mahar United
Matches Played 35 29
Wins 21 9
Draws 6 9
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 2.57 1.76
Goals Conceded 1.03 2.07
Expected Goals (xG) 2.19 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 12, 2026 National League
Shan United vs Mahar United
2:1
Nov 22, 2025 National League
Mahar United vs Shan United
1:5
Feb 22, 2025 National League
Shan United vs Mahar United
3:0
Sep 13, 2024 National League
Mahar United vs Shan United
1:5
Nov 25, 2023 National League
Shan United vs Mahar United
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shan United Compare

Top Goalscorer Hein Khun Kyaw Zin
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ko Sa Aung Pyae
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.68
Avg xA / game 1.09

Mahar United Compare

Top Goalscorer Gilles P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shan United 95 / 100
Mahar United 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shan United Mahar United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Shan United Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Shan United scored in 83% of their last 35 outings.

Mahar United's defensive record shows goals conceded in 93% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 4.60 goals per match.

Solid form: Shan United remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Shan United VS Mahar United
3.13 Goals Scored 0.88
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Shan United

(Home)
14 Sept
Shan United
2 : 0
Ezra
11 Sept
Ezra
3 : 2
Shan United
05 Sept
Myawady
0 : 4
Shan United
30 Aug
Yangon Royals
2 : 2
Shan United
18 Mar
Shan United
1 : 0
Hantharwady United
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Mahar United

(Away)
07 Sept
Ispe
2 : 4
Mahar United
30 Aug
Yangon United
2 : 0
Mahar United
17 Mar
Mahar United
2 : 1
Ayeyawady
12 Mar
Shan United
2 : 1
Mahar United
03 Mar
Dagon
1 : 0
Mahar United
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Shan United 22 18 4 0 66:10 58
2 Yangon United 22 18 3 1 70:7 57
3 Dagon 22 11 6 5 39:30 39
4 Ispe 22 9 4 9 35:46 31
5 Hantharwady United 22 7 7 8 32:34 28
6 Mahar United 22 7 7 8 39:44 28
7 Yadanarbon 22 7 5 10 38:38 26
8 Ayeyawady 22 7 5 10 25:26 26
9 Thitsar Arman 22 5 9 8 36:38 24
10 Dagon Port 22 5 7 10 44:62 22
11 Rakhine United 22 5 4 13 28:54 19
12 Yarmanya United 22 1 3 18 17:80 6
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