Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Shelbourne vs Dundalk

Ireland Ireland

Premier Division Tolka Park
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Shelbourne play Dundalk in the Premier Division. It looks like a close match. Recently, Shelbourne averaged 1.53 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. Dundalk averaged 1.75 goals scored and 1.39 conceded. In past meetings, Shelbourne won 3, Dundalk won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jul 3, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Shelbourne and 1.31 for Dundalk. This points to a Shelbourne double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Shelbourne
33%
Draws
32%
Dundalk
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Shelbourne

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Shelbourne picked up more points recently compared to Dundalk.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 1.31 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 67%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 83%
Over 2.5 Goals 67%
Over 3.5 Goals 40%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Shelbourne Clean Sheet 18%
Dundalk Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 75%
Second Half Goal 79%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shelbourne Dundalk
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 11 12
Draws 13 9
Losses 6 7
Goals Scored 1.53 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 3, 2026 Premier Division
Shelbourne vs Dundalk
2:1
May 1, 2026 Premier Division
Dundalk vs Shelbourne
1:2
Apr 3, 2026 Premier Division
Shelbourne vs Dundalk
2:3
Jan 20, 2026 Club Friendly
Shelbourne vs Dundalk
2:1
Feb 1, 2025 Club Friendly
Shelbourne vs Dundalk
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shelbourne Compare

Top Goalscorer Kelly D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Wood H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Dundalk Compare

Top Goalscorer Wilson J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shelbourne 35 / 100
Dundalk 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shelbourne Dundalk

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Shelbourne or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +29.5%
3.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.9%
1.64
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Shelbourne attacking → ← attacking Dundalk

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Shelbourne scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Dundalk let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Shelbourne went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Dundalk lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

46 Points in last 5 45
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.63
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Shamrock Rovers25155540:2250
2Bohemians25127640:2743
3St. Patricks23125638:1941
4Dundalk2398637:3435
5Shelbourne24810635:3534
6Derry City25611832:3129
7Galway United22661029:3724
8Drogheda23571127:4022
9Waterford23481132:4620
10Sligo Rovers23551318:3720