Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Shimal vs Gancabasar

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Achimi D.
45' Event
Osmanov N.
64' Event
Achimi D.

AI Match Summary

Shimal in this I Liqa 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Shimal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Shimal
15%
Draws
48%
Gancabasar
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Gancabasar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Gancabasar lately — more wins on the board than Shimal.
  • Gancabasar are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular I Liqa 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Shimal Clean Sheet 16%
Gancabasar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shimal Gancabasar
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 10
Draws 5 3
Losses 19 17
Goals Scored 0.9 1.57
Goals Conceded 2.27 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 4, 2026 I Liqa
Shimal vs Gancabasar
1:2
May 21, 2026 I Liqa
Gancabasar vs Shimal
2:3
Feb 24, 2026 I Liqa
Shimal vs Gancabasar
3:2
Nov 20, 2025 I Liqa
Gancabasar vs Shimal
7:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shimal Compare

Top Goalscorer Kalbaliyev C.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Osmanov N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Gancabasar Compare

Top Goalscorer Achimi D.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shimal 28 / 100
Gancabasar 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shimal Gancabasar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gancabasar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gancabasar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 5.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Shimal remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Shimal's goal record stands at 50% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Shimal VS Gancabasar
0.63 Goals Scored 1.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.13
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Shimal

(Home)
17 Sept
Shimal
1 : 4
Sahdag Qusar
11 Sept
MOIK Baku
1 : 1
Shimal
04 Sept
Shimal
1 : 2
Gancabasar
27 May
Shimal
2 : 1
Lokbatan
21 May
Gancabasar
2 : 3
Shimal
Page 1 of 6

Gancabasar

(Away)
17 Sept
Mingachevir
0 : 3
Gancabasar
10 Sept
Gancabasar
2 : 1
FC Khankendi
04 Sept
Shimal
1 : 2
Gancabasar
21 May
Gancabasar
2 : 3
Shimal
15 May
Safa Baku
1 : 0
Gancabasar
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Safa Baku 27 16 9 2 52:21 57
2 Mingachevir 27 15 6 6 55:27 51
3 Sabail 27 14 8 5 46:21 50
4 Baku Sporting 27 13 10 4 40:23 49
5 Sahdag Qusar 27 12 7 8 36:27 43
6 MOIK Baku 27 9 6 12 33:40 33
7 Zaqatala PFK 27 8 4 15 27:44 28
8 Gancabasar 27 7 3 17 40:56 24
9 Shimal 27 5 5 17 23:61 20
10 Difai Agsu 27 4 6 17 28:60 18
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa 2025/2026 (Relegation)