Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Shimizu S-Pulse vs Cerezo Osaka

Japan Japan

J1 League 2026 IAI Stadium Nihondaira
Wed, May 6, 2026
2 - 1
04:03 AM
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Tanaka S.
Assist: Ishiwatari N.
46'
Sub
Umeda T. In: Oki Y.
Out: Umeda T.
46'
Sub
Nakahara H. In: Capixaba
Out: Nakahara H.

AI Match Summary

The J1 League 2026 game between Shimizu S-Pulse and Cerezo Osaka finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Shimizu S-Pulse.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Shimizu S-Pulse
6%
Draws
90%
Cerezo Osaka
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Cerezo Osaka

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Cerezo Osaka come out ahead of Shimizu S-Pulse on wins alone.
  • Model gives Cerezo Osaka a 90% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Shimizu S-Pulse Clean Sheet 20%
Cerezo Osaka Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shimizu S-Pulse Cerezo Osaka
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 11 15
Draws 1 1
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 1.13 2.38
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 6, 2026 J1 League
Shimizu S-Pulse vs Cerezo Osaka
2:1
Mar 7, 2026 J1 League
Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-Pulse
1:0
Nov 9, 2025 J1 League
Shimizu S-Pulse vs Cerezo Osaka
1:4
Jun 1, 2025 J1 League
Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-Pulse
4:2
Jun 26, 2022 J1 League
Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-Pulse
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shimizu S-Pulse Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Cerezo Osaka Compare

Top Goalscorer Tanaka S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shimizu S-Pulse 10 / 100
Cerezo Osaka 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shimizu S-Pulse Cerezo Osaka

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CER Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Shimizu S-Pulse scored in 70% of their last 27 games.

Cerezo Osaka let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Shimizu S-Pulse stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Shimizu S-Pulse VS Cerezo Osaka
1.13 Goals Scored 2.38
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
0% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Kashima Antlers18150331:1145
2FC Tokyo18130532:1837
3Machida Zelvia18130528:2237
4Kawasaki Frontale18100826:2828
5Verdy18100822:2628
6Urawa Reds18701125:2225
7Yokohama F. Marinos18601228:3120
8Kashiwa Reysol18701122:2420
9Mito18601223:3918
10Chiba18301518:3412
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vissel Kobe18110729:2535
2Cerezo Osaka18110730:2131
3Nagoya Grampus18100833:3131
4Sanfrecce Hiroshima18100831:2330
5Gamba Osaka18100831:2528
6Okayama18801026:2926
7Shimizu S-Pulse18801023:2524
8Kyoto18801022:2823
9V-Varen Nagasaki18701121:2921
10Avispa Fukuoka18701121:3121