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Shimizu S-Pulse vs Machida Zelvia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Japan Japan

J1 League IAI Stadium Nihondaira, Shizuoka
Wed, Oct 21, 2026
VS
10:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Shimizu S-Pulse host Machida Zelvia in the J1 League. Shimizu S-Pulse are expected to control this from the start. Recent numbers: Shimizu S-Pulse at 1.34 goals for, 1.21 against; Machida Zelvia at 1.72 for, 0.94 against. Past meetings favor Shimizu S-Pulse slightly — 2-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jul 5, 2025, ending 3:0. Model xG sits at 1.20 vs 1.00, favoring Shimizu S-Pulse. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Shimizu S-Pulse
15%
Draws
38%
Machida Zelvia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Shimizu S-Pulse

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Machida Zelvia carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Shimizu S-Pulse are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Shimizu S-Pulse Clean Sheet 20%
Machida Zelvia Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shimizu S-Pulse Machida Zelvia
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 15 23
Draws 3 3
Losses 11 6
Goals Scored 1.34 1.72
Goals Conceded 1.21 0.94
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 5, 2025 J1 League
Machida Zelvia vs Shimizu S-Pulse
3:0
May 11, 2025 J1 League
Shimizu S-Pulse vs Machida Zelvia
2:2
Aug 19, 2023 J2 League
Shimizu S-Pulse vs Machida Zelvia
3:2
May 21, 2023 J2 League
Machida Zelvia vs Shimizu S-Pulse
2:1
Oct 8, 2016 J2 League
Shimizu S-Pulse vs Machida Zelvia
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shimizu S-Pulse 58 / 100
Machida Zelvia 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shimizu S-Pulse Machida Zelvia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Shimizu S-Pulse Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Shimizu S-Pulse scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Shimizu S-Pulse has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Machida Zelvia has conceded goals in 59% of their last 32 outings.

Scoring Trends

Shimizu S-Pulse VS Machida Zelvia
1.38 Goals Scored 1.75
1 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Shimizu S-Pulse

(Home)
11 Oct
Mito
1 : 2
Shimizu S-Pulse
07 Oct
Shimizu S-Pulse
2 : 1
V-Varen Nagasaki
29 Sept
Kanazawa
0 : 2
Shimizu S-Pulse
19 Sept
Shimizu S-Pulse
2 : 1
Chiba
12 Sept
Shimizu S-Pulse
1 : 0
Avispa Fukuoka
Page 1 of 6

Machida Zelvia

(Away)
10 Oct
Kyoto
0 : 1
Machida Zelvia
03 Oct
Machida Zelvia
1 : 0
Kyoto
23 Sept
Machida Zelvia
2 : 1
Tochigi City
20 Sept
Machida Zelvia
2 : 4
Kashiwa Reysol
17 Sept
Machida Zelvia
2 : 0
Svay Rieng
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kashiwa Reysol 9 7 0 2 21:14 21
2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 9 6 2 1 22:6 20
3 Machida Zelvia 9 6 2 1 22:10 20
4 FC Tokyo 9 6 2 1 17:8 20
5 Vissel Kobe 9 6 1 2 14:9 19
6 Kashima Antlers 9 5 1 3 19:16 16
7 Yokohama F. Marinos 9 4 3 2 13:9 15
8 Kawasaki Frontale 9 3 4 2 17:14 13
9 Okayama 9 4 1 4 12:12 13
10 Shimizu S-Pulse 9 4 1 4 8:9 13
11 Urawa Reds 9 4 0 5 16:21 12
12 Cerezo Osaka 9 3 3 3 7:12 12
13 Mito 9 2 3 4 12:13 9
14 V-Varen Nagasaki 9 2 3 4 11:16 9
15 Nagoya Grampus 9 3 0 6 9:15 9
16 Kyoto 9 2 2 5 11:16 8
17 Avispa Fukuoka 9 2 1 6 11:13 7
18 Gamba Osaka 9 1 3 5 8:16 6
19 Chiba 9 1 2 6 8:19 5
20 Verdy 9 0 4 5 4:14 4
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League 2027/2028 (Main)