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Shimizu S-Pulse vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Japan Japan

J1 League 2026 IAI Stadium Nihondaira
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Yoshida Y.
21' Event
Oh Se-Hun
33'
Sub
Matsuzaki K. In: Chiba K.
Out: Matsuzaki K.

AI Match Summary

The J1 League 2026 game between Shimizu S-Pulse and Sanfrecce Hiroshima finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Shimizu S-Pulse.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Shimizu S-Pulse
39%
Draws
30%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Sanfrecce Hiroshima has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Shimizu S-Pulse.
  • Model projects a tightly contested fixture with a 39% draw probability.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in J1 League 2026 provide steady trend data.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%
Shimizu S-Pulse Clean Sheet 23%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shimizu S-Pulse Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 11 17
Draws 2 2
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 1 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 J1 League
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-Pulse
2:1
Mar 22, 2026 J1 League
Shimizu S-Pulse vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3:1
Aug 10, 2025 J1 League
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-Pulse
0:0
Aug 6, 2025 Emperors Cup
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-Pulse
3:0
Feb 26, 2025 J1 League
Shimizu S-Pulse vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shimizu S-Pulse Compare

Top Goalscorer Yoshida Y.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Oh Se-Hun
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Compare

Top Goalscorer Germain R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shimizu S-Pulse 33 / 100
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shimizu S-Pulse Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAN Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Shimizu S-Pulse scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Shimizu S-Pulse went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Shimizu S-Pulse VS Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1 Goals Scored 1.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Kashima Antlers18150331:1145
2FC Tokyo18130532:1837
3Machida Zelvia18130528:2237
4Kawasaki Frontale18100826:2828
5Verdy18100822:2628
6Urawa Reds18701125:2225
7Yokohama F. Marinos18601228:3120
8Kashiwa Reysol18701122:2420
9Mito18601223:3918
10Chiba18301518:3412
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vissel Kobe18110729:2535
2Cerezo Osaka18110730:2131
3Nagoya Grampus18100833:3131
4Sanfrecce Hiroshima18100831:2330
5Gamba Osaka18100831:2528
6Okayama18801026:2926
7Shimizu S-Pulse18801023:2524
8Kyoto18801022:2823
9V-Varen Nagasaki18701121:2921
10Avispa Fukuoka18701121:3121