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Sibir Novosibirsk vs Kaluga Prediction & H2H Stats

Russia Russia

FNL 2 - Division A Gold 2025/2026 Stadion Spartak, Novosibirsk
Our Tip

Match Events

23'
Polev A.
44'
Balashov K.
44'
Redkovich D.

AI Match Summary

Sibir Novosibirsk in this FNL 2 - Division A Gold 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sibir Novosibirsk.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Sibir Novosibirsk
30%
Draws
29%
Kaluga
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sibir Novosibirsk

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Sibir Novosibirsk have won more games recently than Kaluga.
  • 41% — that's where the model lands on Sibir Novosibirsk taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Sibir Novosibirsk have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Sibir Novosibirsk Clean Sheet 68%
Kaluga Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sibir Novosibirsk Kaluga
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 13 7
Draws 7 10
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.5 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.21 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 FNL 2 - Division A Gold
Sibir Novosibirsk vs Kaluga
3:0
Jul 26, 2026 FNL 2 - Division A Gold
Kaluga vs Sibir Novosibirsk
0:1
Jun 7, 2026 FNL 2 - Division A Gold
Sibir Novosibirsk vs Kaluga
1:0
Apr 19, 2026 FNL 2 - Division A Gold
Kaluga vs Sibir Novosibirsk
1:2
Jun 7, 2025 FNL 2 - Division A Silver
Sibir Novosibirsk vs Kaluga
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sibir Novosibirsk Compare

Top Goalscorer Kvekveskiri D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Kaluga Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sibir Novosibirsk 86 / 100
Kaluga 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sibir Novosibirsk Kaluga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sibir Novosibirsk Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sibir Novosibirsk's goal record stands at 82% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Kaluga let in goals in 71% of their last 28 matches.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Sibir Novosibirsk has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sibir Novosibirsk VS Kaluga
1.38 Goals Scored 1.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Sibir Novosibirsk

(Home)
27 Sept
Rodina Moscow 2
1 : 3
Sibir Novosibirsk
20 Sept
Sibir Novosibirsk
3 : 0
Kaluga
12 Sept
Sibir Novosibirsk
0 : 0
Alania Vladikavkaz
06 Sept
Mashuk
3 : 1
Sibir Novosibirsk
30 Aug
Sibir Novosibirsk
0 : 1
Kirov
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Kaluga

(Away)
27 Sept
Kaluga
1 : 2
Kirov
20 Sept
Sibir Novosibirsk
3 : 0
Kaluga
13 Sept
Kaluga
1 : 1
Dynamo Vladivostok
09 Sept
Kaluga
1 : 0
Ufa
05 Sept
FC Volgar-Astrakhan
1 : 1
Kaluga
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Leningradets 18 10 4 4 23:23 34
2 Tekstilshtik 18 10 2 6 29:18 32
3 Sibir Novosibirsk 18 9 5 4 28:20 32
4 Veles Moscow 18 8 4 6 20:12 28
5 Mashuk 18 5 11 2 20:13 26
6 FC Volgar-Astrakhan 18 6 6 6 21:19 24
7 Kaluga 18 5 5 8 17:20 20
8 Rodina Moscow 2 18 4 7 7 20:23 19
9 Torpedo Miass 18 3 7 8 13:23 16
10 Irtysh Omsk 18 1 7 10 11:31 10
Promotion - FNL (Main)
Promotion - FNL 2 - Division A Gold 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - FNL 2 - Division A Silver (Fall Season)