Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Siena vs Foligno

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Andolfi T.
20' Event
Ciofi J.
47' Event
Ferrara C.

AI Match Summary

Siena in this Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Siena.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Siena
30%
Draws
23%
Foligno
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Siena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Siena lately — more wins on the board than Foligno.
  • Win probability leans Siena's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Siena Clean Sheet 68%
Foligno Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Siena Foligno
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 11
Draws 8 8
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.79 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Siena vs Foligno
3:2
Nov 9, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Foligno vs Siena
3:1
Jun 9, 2021 Serie D - Group E
Foligno vs Siena
1:2
Feb 3, 2021 Serie D - Group E
Siena vs Foligno
0:0
Jan 11, 2015 Serie D - Group E
Siena vs Foligno
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Siena Compare

Top Goalscorer Andolfi T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ciofi J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Foligno Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferrara C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Manfredi L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Siena 77 / 100
Foligno 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Siena Foligno

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Siena Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Siena's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Foligno conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Siena went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Siena VS Foligno
2.88 Goals Scored 0.75
1.88 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 13%
75% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Siena

(Home)
19 Aug
Sansovino
1 : 3
Siena
31 Jul
Siena
2 : 0
Scandicci
10 May
Prato
3 : 1
Siena
03 May
Siena
4 : 4
Sporting Trestina
26 Apr
Camaiore Calcio
2 : 5
Siena
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Foligno

(Away)
03 May
Foligno
1 : 0
Cannara
26 Apr
Seravezza Pozzi
0 : 0
Foligno
19 Apr
San Donato Tavarnelle
1 : 0
Foligno
12 Apr
Foligno
0 : 2
Prato
02 Apr
Ghiviborgo
0 : 0
Foligno
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Grosseto 34 22 6 6 58:25 72
2 Tau 34 18 9 7 53:33 63
3 Prato 34 20 5 9 49:29 63
4 Siena 34 17 9 8 57:35 60
5 Seravezza Pozzi 34 15 12 7 42:29 57
6 Terranuova Traiana 34 14 9 11 28:30 51
7 Foligno 34 14 9 11 45:37 51
8 Scandicci 34 11 15 8 39:32 48
9 Montevarchi 34 10 16 8 28:32 46
10 Sporting Trestina 34 10 12 12 40:42 42
11 San Donato Tavarnelle 34 9 13 12 30:35 40
12 Ghiviborgo 34 10 10 14 42:44 40
13 Orvietana 34 9 11 14 33:37 38
14 Follonica Gavorrano 34 9 10 15 36:49 37
15 Camaiore Calcio 34 9 8 17 41:54 35
16 Poggibonsi 34 7 10 17 29:46 31
17 Cannara 34 6 8 20 24:59 26
18 Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro 34 2 16 16 20:46 22
Promotion - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Out)