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Siheung Citizen vs Changwon

South Korea South Korea

K3 League
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Lee Jong-Hun
25' Event
Jo Min-Ho
Assist: Lee Nam-Kyu
26' Event
Lee M.
Assist: Lee Nam-Kyu

AI Match Summary

The K3 League game between Siheung Citizen and Changwon finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Siheung Citizen.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

78%
Siheung Citizen
15%
Draws
7%
Changwon
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Siheung Citizen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Siheung Citizen come out ahead of Changwon on wins alone.
  • Siheung Citizen are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular K3 League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Siheung Citizen have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Siheung Citizen Clean Sheet 68%
Changwon Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Siheung Citizen Changwon
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 19 11
Draws 5 10
Losses 6 9
Goals Scored 1.4 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 K3 League
Siheung Citizen vs Changwon
3:1
May 2, 2026 K3 League
Changwon vs Siheung Citizen
1:1
Jul 13, 2025 K3 League
Siheung Citizen vs Changwon
2:0
Mar 15, 2025 K3 League
Changwon vs Siheung Citizen
1:2
Sep 14, 2024 K3 League
Siheung Citizen vs Changwon
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Siheung Citizen Compare

Top Goalscorer Jo Min-Ho
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lee M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Changwon Compare

Top Goalscorer Lee Jong-Hun
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Siheung Citizen 95 / 100
Changwon 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Siheung Citizen Changwon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Siheung Citizen Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Siheung Citizen found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (30 games).

Changwon has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Siheung Citizen has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Siheung Citizen VS Changwon
1 Goals Scored 1.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Siheung Citizen

(Home)
13 Sept
Siheung Citizen
3 : 1
Changwon
06 Sept
Yangpyeong
1 : 3
Siheung Citizen
30 Aug
Siheung Citizen
3 : 2
Pocheon
23 Aug
Siheung Citizen
2 : 0
Daejeon Korail
29 Jul
Chungnam Asan
2 : 1
Siheung Citizen
Page 1 of 6

Changwon

(Away)
20 Sept
Gyeongju KHNP
2 : 1
Changwon
13 Sept
Siheung Citizen
3 : 1
Changwon
05 Sept
Changwon
0 : 1
Daejeon Korail
22 Aug
Busan Kyotong
4 : 3
Changwon
26 Jul
Changwon
1 : 1
Jeonbuk 2
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Siheung Citizen 22 16 4 2 35:19 52
2 Pocheon 22 13 6 3 38:19 45
3 Daejeon Korail 22 11 5 6 31:17 38
4 Busan Kyotong 22 10 7 5 39:26 37
5 Gyeongju KHNP 22 8 8 6 32:29 32
6 Dangjin Citizen 22 9 4 9 44:36 31
7 Chuncheon 22 8 5 9 39:35 29
8 Ulsan Citizen 22 8 4 10 23:24 28
9 Gangneung 22 7 6 9 20:30 27
10 Changwon 22 6 8 8 24:27 26
11 Yeoju Citizen 22 6 7 9 24:28 25
12 Mokpo 22 4 9 9 19:35 21
13 Yangpyeong 22 3 8 11 27:43 17
14 Jeonbuk 2 22 1 7 14 22:49 10
Relegation - K3 League (Relegation)