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Sivas Dort vs Bayburt Ozel Idare

Turkey Turkey

3. Lig Group 3 2023/2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This 3. Lig Group 3 2023/2024 encounter between Sivas Dort and Bayburt Ozel Idare promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Sivas Dort averages 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded in recent matches. Bayburt Ozel Idare shows a form average of 0.9 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 2 wins for Sivas Dort, 3 wins for Bayburt Ozel Idare, and 0 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 21.04.24 ended in a 2:1 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.29 for Sivas Dort and 1.11 for Bayburt Ozel Idare, suggesting the primary value lies in the Bayburt Ozel Idare double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Sivas Dort
20%
Draws
43%
Bayburt Ozel Idare
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Bayburt Ozel Idare

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Sivas Dort picked up more points recently compared to Bayburt Ozel Idare.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.29 vs 1.11 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 54%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%
Sivas Dort Clean Sheet 21%
Bayburt Ozel Idare Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sivas Dort Bayburt Ozel Idare
Matches Played 30 36
Wins 6 6
Draws 5 14
Losses 19 16
Goals Scored 0.83 0.89
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.61

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

21.04.24 3. Lig Group 3
Bayburt Ozel Idare vs Sivas Dort
2:1
10.12.23 3. Lig Group 3
Sivas Dort vs Bayburt Ozel Idare
2:1
19.04.23 2. Lig White Group
Sivas Dort vs Bayburt Ozel Idare
1:2
13.11.22 2. Lig White Group
Bayburt Ozel Idare vs Sivas Dort
2:1
06.02.22 2. Lig Red Group
Sivas Dort vs Bayburt Ozel Idare
2:0

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Sivas Dort

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Bayburt Ozel Idare

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sivas Dort Compare

Top Goalscorer Calisir T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader N/A
0 Ast
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Bayburt Ozel Idare Compare

Top Goalscorer Calap B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader N/A
0 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sivas Dort 38 / 100
Bayburt Ozel Idare 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sivas Dort Bayburt Ozel Idare

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Bayburt Ozel Idare or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +27.6%
3.45
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.3%
2.08
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

Sivas Dort 41%
Bayburt Ozel Idare 34%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

Sivas Dort 35%
Bayburt Ozel Idare 45%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

Sivas Dort 37%
Bayburt Ozel Idare 43%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

Sivas Dort 39%
Bayburt Ozel Idare 41%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

Sivas Dort 33%
Bayburt Ozel Idare 47%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

Sivas Dort 43%
Bayburt Ozel Idare 49%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Sivas Dort attacking → ← attacking Bayburt Ozel Idare

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sivas Dort have found the net in 60% of their last 30 matches.

Bayburt Ozel Idare have conceded at least one goal in 75% of their last 36 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 2.80 goals per match.

Sivas Dort remained undefeated in 1 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Bayburt Ozel Idare suffered defeat in 4 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

23 Points in last 5 32
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Karakopru28179251:2460
2Erbaaspor28169355:2157
3Silivrispor28149538:2251
4Bornova 187728155847:3350
5Kusadasispor28129736:2845
6Kutahyaspor281111640:2544
7Tepecik28109929:3039
8Agri 197028109936:3539
9Fatsa Bld.28910924:2737
10Osmaniyespor28851529:3429
111922 Konyaspor28771425:3028
12Bayburt Ozel Idare286101218:3828
13Darica Genclerbirligi28671518:3325
14Akhisarspor28541925:6719
15Sivas Dort28551822:4617