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Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Croatia Croatia

HNL Gradski stadion Ivan Kusek Apas, Koprivnica
Our Tip

Match Events

4'
Nestorovski I.
18' Event
Mitrovic J.
Assist: Isasegi K.
21' Event
Nestorovski I.
Assist: Bosak D.

AI Match Summary

The HNL game between Slaven Belupo and HNK Gorica finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Slaven Belupo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Slaven Belupo
35%
Draws
30%
HNK Gorica
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and HNK Gorica come out ahead of Slaven Belupo on wins alone.
  • 35% — that's where the model lands on Slaven Belupo taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Slaven Belupo Clean Sheet 17%
HNK Gorica Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Slaven Belupo HNK Gorica
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 6 9
Draws 5 6
Losses 18 15
Goals Scored 1.34 1.2
Goals Conceded 2 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 HNL
Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica
2:0
May 10, 2026 HNL
Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica
1:0
Mar 7, 2026 HNL
HNK Gorica vs Slaven Belupo
2:2
Dec 5, 2025 HNL
Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica
2:1
Sep 21, 2025 HNL
HNK Gorica vs Slaven Belupo
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Slaven Belupo Compare

Top Goalscorer Mitrovic J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nestorovski I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

HNK Gorica Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Slaven Belupo 57 / 100
HNK Gorica 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Slaven Belupo HNK Gorica

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Slaven Belupo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Slaven Belupo found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

HNK Gorica let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Solid form: Slaven Belupo remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Slaven Belupo VS HNK Gorica
1.5 Goals Scored 1
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Slaven Belupo

(Home)
01 Oct
O. Ljubljana
2 : 1
Slaven Belupo
18 Sept
Rudes
2 : 2
Slaven Belupo
13 Sept
Hajduk Split
1 : 0
Slaven Belupo
09 Sept
Dragovoljac
0 : 5
Slaven Belupo
06 Sept
Slaven Belupo
2 : 1
Lok. Zagreb
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HNK Gorica

(Away)
09 Oct
HNK Gorica
1 : 2
Rudes
02 Oct
HNK Gorica
3 : 3
Bravo
28 Sept
Maribor
1 : 1
HNK Gorica
19 Sept
Istra 1961
0 : 1
HNK Gorica
14 Sept
HNK Gorica
2 : 2
Varazdin
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Din. Zagreb 7 5 1 1 17:9 16
2 Hajduk Split 8 5 1 2 16:8 16
3 Osijek 8 5 1 2 17:11 16
4 Varazdin 8 4 3 1 13:7 15
5 Rijeka 7 4 2 1 13:7 14
6 Istra 1961 8 2 3 3 14:13 9
7 Lok. Zagreb 8 2 1 5 11:16 7
8 Slaven Belupo 8 2 1 5 7:16 7
9 Rudes 9 2 1 6 12:25 7
10 HNK Gorica 9 1 2 6 6:14 5
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva NL 2027/2028 (Main)