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Sliven vs Zagorets - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - South-East 2023/2024 Hadzhi Dimitar Stadium, Sliven
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AI Match Summary

Sliven in this Third League - South-East 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sliven.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Sliven
15%
Draws
42%
Zagorets
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sliven

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Zagorets have won more games recently than Sliven.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Third League - South-East 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Zagorets here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Sliven Clean Sheet 16%
Zagorets Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sliven Zagorets
Matches Played 31 33
Wins 9 12
Draws 5 5
Losses 17 16
Goals Scored 1.48 1.52
Goals Conceded 2.35 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.85 1.49
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2024 Third League - South-East
Sliven vs Zagorets
1:0
Oct 27, 2023 Third League - South-East
Zagorets vs Sliven
6:1
Mar 31, 2023 Third League - South-East
Sliven vs Zagorets
0:3
Sep 17, 2022 Third League - South-East
Zagorets vs Sliven
4:0
Mar 19, 2016 Third League - South-East
Zagorets vs Sliven
7:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sliven 31 / 100
Zagorets 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sliven Zagorets

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Zagorets Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.60 goals as a typical output.

Sliven scored in 65% of their last 31 games.

Zagorets has conceded goals in 73% of their last 33 outings.

Away concern: Zagorets has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Zagorets
0 Goals Scored 1.88
0 Goals Conceded 2.5
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 88%
0% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Sliven

(Home)
27 Jan
Beroe
13 : 0
Sliven
25 Jan
Chernomorets 1919
5 : 3
Sliven
17 Jul
Sozopol
4 : 2
Sliven
01 Jun
Sekirovo Rakovski
2 : 0
Sliven
25 May
Sliven
5 : 2
Levski Karlovo
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Zagorets

(Away)
04 Oct
Zagorets
0 : 4
Rilski Sportist
26 Sept
Zagorets
0 : 3
Botev II
19 Sept
Neftochimic Burgas
2 : 0
Zagorets
12 Sept
Zagorets
4 : 3
Atletik Kuklen
05 Sept
Dimitrovgrad
2 : 0
Zagorets
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nesebar 38 29 8 1 121:39 95
2 OFC Haskovo 38 30 3 5 97:26 93
3 Spartak Plovdiv 38 29 6 3 122:22 93
4 Gigant Saedinenie 38 21 8 9 81:43 71
5 Zagorets 38 21 6 11 79:42 69
6 Dimitrovgrad 38 19 10 9 60:40 67
7 Botev II 38 18 7 13 84:55 61
8 Atletik Kuklen 38 18 4 16 60:71 58
9 Rozova Dolina 38 17 5 16 60:50 56
10 Rodopa Smolyan 38 15 6 17 64:63 51
11 Asenovets 38 14 6 18 59:73 48
12 Lok. Plovdiv II 38 14 5 19 65:59 47
13 Sozopol 38 12 10 16 57:53 46
14 Sekirovo Rakovski 38 11 7 20 59:75 40
15 Levski Karlovo 38 11 5 22 56:91 38
16 Yambol 1915 38 9 10 19 49:82 37
17 Karnobat 38 11 1 26 46:106 34
18 Sliven 38 8 6 24 42:127 30
19 Sokol Markovo 38 8 3 27 36:98 27
20 Beroe II 38 6 2 30 26:108 20
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