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Slovenia vs Austria

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 Stadion Stozice
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Slovenia play Austria in the UEFA Nations League 2024/2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Slovenia averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. Austria averaged 2.07 goals scored and 1 conceded. In past meetings, Slovenia won 0, Austria won 3, and they drew 2. Their last match on Nov 17, 2024 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.56 for Slovenia and 1.81 for Austria. This points to a Austria double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Slovenia
34%
Draws
39%
Austria
Draw rate projection: 34% Favored: Austria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Slovenia picked up more points recently compared to Austria.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.56 vs 1.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 74%
Over 2.5 Goals 42%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%
Slovenia Clean Sheet 11%
Austria Clean Sheet 22%
First Half Goal 67%
Second Half Goal 70%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Slovenia Austria
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 17
Draws 13 6
Losses 7 7
Goals Scored 1.03 2.07
Goals Conceded 1.07 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 2.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 0.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 17, 2024 UEFA Nations League
Austria vs Slovenia
1:1
Sep 6, 2024 UEFA Nations League
Slovenia vs Austria
1:1
Oct 13, 2019 Euro
Slovenia vs Austria
0:1
Jun 7, 2019 Euro
Austria vs Slovenia
1:0
Mar 23, 2018 Friendly International
Austria vs Slovenia
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Slovenia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Austria Compare

Top Goalscorer Laimer K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.27
Avg xA / game 1.39

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Slovenia 27 / 100
Austria 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Slovenia Austria

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Austria or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +42%
5.26
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.8%
2.78
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Slovenia attacking → ← attacking Austria

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Slovenia scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Austria let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Slovenia went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Austria lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

European tournament. Big stakes for both clubs, so expect a tense, high-pressure match.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

43 Points in last 5 57
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 2.50
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Czech Republic63219:811
2Ukraine62228:88
3Georgia62137:67
4Albania62134:67
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1England650116:315
2Greece650111:415
3Ireland62043:126
4Finland60062:130
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Norway641115:713
2Austria632114:511
3Slovenia62227:98
4Kazakhstan60150:151
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Wales63309:412
2Turkey63219:611
3Iceland621310:137
4Montenegro61054:93