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Smederevo vs Usce

Serbia Serbia

Mozzart Bet Prva Liga 2025/2026 Stadion FK Smederevo, Smederevo
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Spiridonovic S.
10' Event
Cesinha
15'
Vuletic A.

AI Match Summary

Smederevo in this Mozzart Bet Prva Liga 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 5-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Smederevo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Smederevo
15%
Draws
21%
Usce
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Smederevo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Smederevo have won more games recently than Usce.
  • Smederevo are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Mozzart Bet Prva Liga 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Smederevo here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 79.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Smederevo Clean Sheet 68%
Usce Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Smederevo Usce
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 16 3
Draws 5 7
Losses 10 18
Goals Scored 1.68 0.68
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.79 1.04
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Mozzart Bet Prva Liga
Smederevo vs Usce
5:1
Dec 6, 2025 Mozzart Bet Prva Liga
Smederevo vs Usce
2:1
Aug 30, 2025 Mozzart Bet Prva Liga
Usce vs Smederevo
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Smederevo Compare

Top Goalscorer Spiridonovic S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cesinha
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.38
Avg xA / game 0.9

Usce Compare

Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.58

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Smederevo 95 / 100
Usce 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Smederevo Usce

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Smederevo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Usce let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 4.33 goals when they meet.

Smederevo scored in 61% of their last 31 games.

Recent resilience: Smederevo stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Smederevo VS Usce
1.88 Goals Scored 0.71
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.71
88% Over 1.5 71%
63% Over 2.5 29%
25% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Smederevo

(Home)
15 Aug
Smederevo
4 : 1
OFK Bor 1919
09 Aug
Graficar Beograd
1 : 2
Smederevo
01 Aug
Smederevo
3 : 2
Borac 1926
19 Jul
Smederevo
4 : 2
Mladost DG
15 Jul
Javor
2 : 0
Smederevo
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Usce

(Away)
29 May
Borac 1926
1 : 1
Usce
22 May
Usce
0 : 1
FAP
17 May
Tekstilac Odzaci
4 : 1
Usce
12 May
Usce
2 : 0
Trayal Krusevac
07 May
Dinamo Jug
2 : 0
Usce
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