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Sobradinho vs Paranoa

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense 2025
Sobradinho Logo

Sobradinho

0 - 1
FT
Paranoa Logo

Paranoa

Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Celsinho
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Paranoa in this Brasiliense 2025 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Paranoa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Sobradinho
15%
Draws
26%
Paranoa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sobradinho

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Very High Confidence
  • Sobradinho have won more games recently than Paranoa.
  • Model gives Sobradinho a 90% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Brasiliense 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Sobradinho Clean Sheet 68%
Paranoa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sobradinho Paranoa
Matches Played 31 32
Wins 16 14
Draws 9 5
Losses 6 13
Goals Scored 1.25 1
Goals Conceded 1 2.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 17, 2026 Brasiliense
Sobradinho vs Paranoa
1:0
Jan 26, 2025 Brasiliense
Sobradinho vs Paranoa
0:1
Feb 20, 2020 Brasiliense
Paranoa vs Sobradinho
0:1
Feb 4, 2018 Brasiliense
Paranoa vs Sobradinho
1:2
Feb 19, 2017 Brasiliense
Paranoa vs Sobradinho
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sobradinho Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Paranoa Compare

Top Goalscorer Celsinho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sobradinho 95 / 100
Paranoa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sobradinho Paranoa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SOB Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Sobradinho scored in 68% of their last 31 outings.

Paranoa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 75% of 32 matches.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Sobradinho has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sobradinho VS Paranoa
1.25 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 2.25
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Sobradinho

(Home)
21 Mar
Gama
1 : 0
Sobradinho
15 Mar
Samambaia
0 : 1
Sobradinho
08 Mar
Sobradinho
0 : 0
Samambaia
28 Feb
Sobradinho
1 : 0
Brasilia FC (DF)
22 Feb
Samambaia
3 : 0
Sobradinho
Page 1 of 7

Paranoa

(Away)
28 Feb
Paranoa
0 : 6
Samambaia
21 Feb
Ceilandia
4 : 1
Paranoa
11 Feb
Paranoa
0 : 1
Brasiliense
07 Feb
Real Brasilia
4 : 5
Paranoa
31 Jan
Gama
4 : 1
Paranoa
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Brasiliense 9 7 1 1 15:4 22
2 Capital 9 6 2 1 17:5 20
3 Ceilandia 9 6 1 2 12:8 19
4 Gama 9 5 2 2 7:4 17
5 Paranoa 9 5 0 4 13:11 15
6 Sobradinho 9 3 3 3 9:6 12
7 Samambaia 9 3 2 4 9:8 11
8 Real Brasilia 9 1 2 6 6:15 5
9 Ceilandense 9 1 2 6 8:18 5
10 Legiao 9 0 1 8 3:20 1
Promotion - Brasiliense 2025 (Play Offs)