Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sobradinho vs Samambaia

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense Estádio Defelé, Brasília
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. This leg finished 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Sobradinho
20%
Draws
47%
Samambaia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Samambaia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Sobradinho have won more games recently than Samambaia.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Samambaia taking it.
  • Sobradinho have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%
Sobradinho Clean Sheet 16%
Samambaia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sobradinho Samambaia
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 15 12
Draws 9 6
Losses 6 13
Goals Scored 1.87 1.39
Goals Conceded 0.7 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Brasiliense
Samambaia vs Sobradinho
0:1
Mar 8, 2026 Brasiliense
Sobradinho vs Samambaia
0:0
Feb 22, 2026 Brasiliense
Samambaia vs Sobradinho
3:0
Feb 12, 2025 Brasiliense
Samambaia vs Sobradinho
1:0
Feb 21, 2021 Brasiliense
Samambaia vs Sobradinho
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sobradinho 10 / 100
Samambaia 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sobradinho Samambaia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Samambaia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sobradinho's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Sobradinho has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Defensive concern: Samambaia conceded in 58% of 31 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Sobradinho VS Samambaia
1.25 Goals Scored 1.88
1 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Sobradinho

(Home)
21 Mar
Gama
1 : 0
Sobradinho
15 Mar
Samambaia
0 : 1
Sobradinho
08 Mar
Sobradinho
0 : 0
Samambaia
28 Feb
Sobradinho
1 : 0
Brasilia FC (DF)
22 Feb
Samambaia
3 : 0
Sobradinho
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Samambaia

(Away)
15 Mar
Samambaia
0 : 1
Sobradinho
08 Mar
Sobradinho
0 : 0
Samambaia
28 Feb
Paranoa
0 : 6
Samambaia
22 Feb
Samambaia
3 : 0
Sobradinho
12 Feb
ARUC
0 : 3
Samambaia
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Gama 3
Ceilandia 2
Samambaia 0
Sobradinho 1
Final
Gama 1
Sobradinho 0