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Sobradinho vs SESP Brasilia

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense 2 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
Gilvan
52' Event
Medeiros P.
64' Event
Paranhos

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-0, with Sobradinho advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Sobradinho
30%
Draws
29%
SESP Brasilia
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sobradinho

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • SESP Brasilia haven't matched Sobradinho's recent run of results.
  • 41% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Sobradinho have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Sobradinho, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Sobradinho have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Sobradinho Clean Sheet 20%
SESP Brasilia Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sobradinho SESP Brasilia
Matches Played 30 9
Wins 15 4
Draws 9 2
Losses 6 3
Goals Scored 1.87 1.22
Goals Conceded 0.7 0.78
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 20, 2024 Brasiliense 2
Sobradinho vs SESP Brasilia
3:0
Oct 12, 2024 Brasiliense 2
SESP Brasilia vs Sobradinho
1:2
Oct 5, 2024 Brasiliense 2
Sobradinho vs SESP Brasilia
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sobradinho Compare

Top Goalscorer Gilvan
1 Goals
Assists Leader Medeiros P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

SESP Brasilia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sobradinho 31 / 100
SESP Brasilia 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sobradinho SESP Brasilia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sobradinho Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Sobradinho scored in 67% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.67 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Sobradinho remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

SESP Brasilia has conceded goals in 44% of their last 9 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sobradinho VS -
1.13 Goals Scored 0
0.75 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Sobradinho

(Home)
21 Mar
Gama
1 : 0
Sobradinho
15 Mar
Samambaia
0 : 1
Sobradinho
08 Mar
Sobradinho
0 : 0
Samambaia
28 Feb
Sobradinho
1 : 0
Brasilia FC (DF)
22 Feb
Samambaia
3 : 0
Sobradinho
Page 1 of 6

SESP Brasilia

(Away)
20 Oct
Sobradinho
3 : 0
SESP Brasilia
12 Oct
SESP Brasilia
1 : 2
Sobradinho
05 Oct
Sobradinho
1 : 1
SESP Brasilia
28 Sept
Legiao
0 : 1
SESP Brasilia
23 Sept
SESP Brasilia
0 : 0
Taguatinga
Page 1 of 2

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Taguatinga 1
Legiao 2
Sobradinho 5
SESP Brasilia 1
Final
Legiao 1
Sobradinho 3