Sport Picks
Match Events
4'
4'
Waithira J.
25'
25'
Ntamba M.
30'
30'
Osama P.
AI Match Summary
The Premier League game between Sofapaka and Muranga finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Muranga.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
15%
20%
65%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Muranga
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
65%
/ High Confidence
- Muranga carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model gives Muranga a 65% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Muranga have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Sofapaka Clean Sheet 13%
Muranga Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Sofapaka | Muranga |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 25 |
| Wins | 2 | 11 |
| Draws | 9 | 4 |
| Losses | 19 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 0.53 | 1.32 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.53 | 1.36 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.28 | 1.70 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 15, 2026 Premier League
Sofapaka vs Muranga
2:3
Oct 15, 2025 Premier League
Muranga vs Sofapaka
1:2
May 14, 2025 Premier League
Muranga vs Sofapaka
2:0
Nov 28, 2024 Premier League
Sofapaka vs Muranga
0:1
Mar 9, 2024 Premier League
Sofapaka vs Muranga
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Sofapaka Compare
Top Goalscorer Ntamba M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Ghartey F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.98
Avg xA / game 0.64
Muranga Compare
Top Goalscorer Waithira J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Osama P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.55
Avg xA / game 0.94
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Sofapaka 10 / 100
Muranga 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Sofapaka Muranga
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Muranga Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Muranga let in goals in 72% of their last 25 matches.
H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.
Sofapaka scored in 33% of their last 30 games.
Sofapaka has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Sofapaka VS Muranga
0.57 Goals Scored 1.25
2.14 Goals Conceded 2
71% Over 1.5 75%
57% Over 2.5 63%
29% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Sofapaka
(Home) 31 May
Kariobangi Sharks
6 : 0 Sofapaka
27 May
Sofapaka
1 : 2 KCB
24 May
Sofapaka
1 : 1 Shabana
11 May
Posta Rangers
3 : 0 Sofapaka
02 May
Sofapaka
2 : 2 Mathare United
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27 May
Sofapaka
1 : 2 KCB
24 May
Sofapaka
1 : 1 Shabana
02 May
Sofapaka
2 : 2 Mathare United
03 Apr
Sofapaka
0 : 0 Bandari
14 Mar
Sofapaka
0 : 1 Nairobi United
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Muranga
(Away) 31 May
Muranga
2 : 1 Mara Sugar
24 May
Bidco United
0 : 2 Muranga
17 May
Muranga
1 : 3 Mahia
10 May
Muranga
1 : 0 Kakamega Homeboyz
06 May
Police FC
2 : 1 Muranga
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24 May
Bidco United
0 : 2 Muranga
06 May
Police FC
2 : 1 Muranga
25 Apr
Kariobangi Sharks
1 : 0 Muranga
11 Apr
Mfalme
5 : 1 Muranga
29 Mar
Shabana
1 : 0 Muranga
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mahia | 34 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 50:22 | 69 |
| 2 | Leopards | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 44:28 | 64 |
| 3 | Police FC | 34 | 13 | 16 | 5 | 31:21 | 55 |
| 4 | Nairobi United | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 44:34 | 53 |
| 5 | Shabana | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 35:34 | 52 |
| 6 | Kakamega Homeboyz | 34 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 47:37 | 49 |
| 7 | KCB | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 36:37 | 48 |
| 8 | Muranga | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 42:41 | 47 |
| 9 | Tusker | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 27:32 | 45 |
| 10 | APS Bomet | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 37:35 | 44 |
| 11 | Mara Sugar | 34 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 30:30 | 44 |
| 12 | Bandari | 34 | 9 | 17 | 8 | 26:26 | 44 |
| 13 | Ulinzi Stars | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 34:37 | 41 |
| 14 | Mathare United | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31:35 | 41 |
| 15 | Posta Rangers | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 31:40 | 40 |
| 16 | Kariobangi Sharks | 34 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 30:33 | 38 |
| 17 | Bidco United | 34 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 19:40 | 27 |
| 18 | Sofapaka | 34 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 19:51 | 19 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - Super League 2026/2027 (Main)
