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Sofapaka vs Nairobi United

Kenya Kenya

Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

41' Event
Osanya K.

AI Match Summary

Nairobi United in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Nairobi United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
Sofapaka
35%
Draws
52%
Nairobi United
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Nairobi United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Nairobi United have won more games recently than Sofapaka.
  • 52% — that's where the model lands on Nairobi United taking it.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
Sofapaka Clean Sheet 10%
Nairobi United Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sofapaka Nairobi United
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 2 11
Draws 9 10
Losses 19 13
Goals Scored 0.53 1.15
Goals Conceded 1.53 1.15
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 Premier League
Sofapaka vs Nairobi United
0:1
Nov 1, 2025 Premier League
Nairobi United vs Sofapaka
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sofapaka Compare

Avg xG / game 0.53
Avg xA / game 0.34

Nairobi United Compare

Top Goalscorer Osanya K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sofapaka 10 / 100
Nairobi United 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sofapaka Nairobi United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NAI Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Nairobi United conceded in 74% of 34 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Sofapaka scored in 33% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Sofapaka stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sofapaka VS Nairobi United
0.5 Goals Scored 1.88
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Sofapaka

(Home)
31 May
Kariobangi Sharks
6 : 0
Sofapaka
27 May
Sofapaka
1 : 2
KCB
24 May
Sofapaka
1 : 1
Shabana
11 May
Posta Rangers
3 : 0
Sofapaka
02 May
Sofapaka
2 : 2
Mathare United
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Nairobi United

(Away)
31 May
Mahia
0 : 1
Nairobi United
24 May
Nairobi United
0 : 0
Police FC
16 May
Nairobi United
2 : 2
Posta Rangers
10 May
Kariobangi Sharks
2 : 0
Nairobi United
06 May
Nairobi United
1 : 0
Tusker
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mahia 34 20 9 5 50:22 69
2 Leopards 34 19 7 8 44:28 64
3 Police FC 34 13 16 5 31:21 55
4 Nairobi United 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
5 Shabana 34 14 10 10 35:34 52
6 Kakamega Homeboyz 34 12 13 9 47:37 49
7 KCB 34 13 9 12 36:37 48
8 Muranga 34 13 8 13 42:41 47
9 Tusker 34 13 6 15 27:32 45
10 APS Bomet 34 11 11 12 37:35 44
11 Mara Sugar 34 10 14 10 30:30 44
12 Bandari 34 9 17 8 26:26 44
13 Ulinzi Stars 34 11 8 15 34:37 41
14 Mathare United 34 11 8 15 31:35 41
15 Posta Rangers 34 9 13 12 31:40 40
16 Kariobangi Sharks 34 8 14 12 30:33 38
17 Bidco United 34 5 12 17 19:40 27
18 Sofapaka 34 3 10 21 19:51 19
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Relegation - Super League 2026/2027 (Main)