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Sofapaka vs Police FC

Kenya Kenya

Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Koutiama Y.
54' Event
Omar A.

AI Match Summary

Police FC in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Police FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Sofapaka
35%
Draws
49%
Police FC
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Police FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Police FC lately — more wins on the board than Sofapaka.
  • Model gives Police FC a 49% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 66.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 16.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.200000000000003%
Sofapaka Clean Sheet 13%
Police FC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sofapaka Police FC
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 2 13
Draws 9 13
Losses 19 3
Goals Scored 0.53 1
Goals Conceded 1.53 0.55
Expected Goals (xG) 0.58 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 26, 2026 Premier League
Sofapaka vs Police FC
0:2
Nov 5, 2025 Premier League
Police FC vs Sofapaka
1:0
Feb 2, 2025 Premier League
Police FC vs Sofapaka
1:1
Nov 6, 2024 Premier League
Sofapaka vs Police FC
1:1
Apr 27, 2024 FKF Mozzart Bet Cup
Police FC vs Sofapaka
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sofapaka Compare

Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.29

Police FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Koutiama Y.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Omar A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sofapaka 10 / 100
Police FC 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sofapaka Police FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Police FC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Sofapaka's goal record stands at 33% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Police FC let in goals in 45% of their last 29 matches.

Sofapaka went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sofapaka VS Police FC
0.67 Goals Scored 0.88
2.5 Goals Conceded 0.5
83% Over 1.5 50%
67% Over 2.5 13%
33% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Sofapaka

(Home)
31 May
Kariobangi Sharks
6 : 0
Sofapaka
27 May
Sofapaka
1 : 2
KCB
24 May
Sofapaka
1 : 1
Shabana
11 May
Posta Rangers
3 : 0
Sofapaka
02 May
Sofapaka
2 : 2
Mathare United
Page 1 of 6

Police FC

(Away)
14 Jun
Tusker
2 : 1
Police FC
31 May
Police FC
1 : 1
Kakamega Homeboyz
27 May
Police FC
1 : 1
Kariobangi Sharks
24 May
Nairobi United
0 : 0
Police FC
16 May
Police FC
1 : 0
Bandari
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mahia 34 20 9 5 50:22 69
2 Leopards 34 19 7 8 44:28 64
3 Police FC 34 13 16 5 31:21 55
4 Nairobi United 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
5 Shabana 34 14 10 10 35:34 52
6 Kakamega Homeboyz 34 12 13 9 47:37 49
7 KCB 34 13 9 12 36:37 48
8 Muranga 34 13 8 13 42:41 47
9 Tusker 34 13 6 15 27:32 45
10 APS Bomet 34 11 11 12 37:35 44
11 Mara Sugar 34 10 14 10 30:30 44
12 Bandari 34 9 17 8 26:26 44
13 Ulinzi Stars 34 11 8 15 34:37 41
14 Mathare United 34 11 8 15 31:35 41
15 Posta Rangers 34 9 13 12 31:40 40
16 Kariobangi Sharks 34 8 14 12 30:33 38
17 Bidco United 34 5 12 17 19:40 27
18 Sofapaka 34 3 10 21 19:51 19
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - Super League 2026/2027 (Main)