Sport Picks
Sokol Ostroda vs Tomaszow Mazowiecki - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Poland
III Liga - Group I 2022/2023 
Match Events
19'
19'
Snopczynski B.
45'
45'
Kventser M.
90'
90'
Amrozinski A.
AI Match Summary
The III Liga - Group I 2022/2023 game between Sokol Ostroda and Tomaszow Mazowiecki finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tomaszow Mazowiecki.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
57%
15%
28%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sokol Ostroda
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
57%
/ Medium Confidence
- Tomaszow Mazowiecki carry the better recent record into this one.
- 57% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Regular III Liga - Group I 2022/2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 83%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 83%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 82.6%
Sokol Ostroda Clean Sheet 10%
Tomaszow Mazowiecki Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Sokol Ostroda | Tomaszow Mazowiecki |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 37 |
| Wins | 8 | 15 |
| Draws | 6 | 8 |
| Losses | 16 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.37 | 1.97 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.2 | 1.89 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 2.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jun 7, 2023 III Liga - Group I
Sokol Ostroda vs Tomaszow Mazowiecki
1:2
Nov 6, 2022 III Liga - Group I
Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Sokol Ostroda
1:1
Mar 8, 2020 III Liga - Group I
Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Sokol Ostroda
2:1
Aug 10, 2019 III Liga - Group I
Sokol Ostroda vs Tomaszow Mazowiecki
2:0
Apr 19, 2019 III Liga - Group I
Sokol Ostroda vs Tomaszow Mazowiecki
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Sokol Ostroda Compare
Top Goalscorer Kventser M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
Tomaszow Mazowiecki Compare
Top Goalscorer Snopczynski B.
1 Goals Assists Leader Amrozinski A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Sokol Ostroda 29 / 100
Tomaszow Mazowiecki 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Sokol Ostroda Tomaszow Mazowiecki
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Sokol Ostroda Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Tomaszow Mazowiecki let in goals in 95% of their last 37 matches.
Sokol Ostroda's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.
Tomaszow Mazowiecki lost 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Sokol Ostroda VS Tomaszow Mazowiecki
0.5 Goals Scored 1.25
3 Goals Conceded 1.88
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Sokol Ostroda
(Home) 02 Sept
Sokol Ostroda
1 : 2 Kleczew
18 Jul
MKS Mlawa
4 : 0 Sokol Ostroda
17 Jun
Ursus Warszawa
1 : 2 Sokol Ostroda
10 Jun
Sokol Ostroda
2 : 1 Blonianka Blonie
07 Jun
Sokol Ostroda
1 : 2 Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Page 1 of 6
02 Sept
Sokol Ostroda
1 : 2 Kleczew
10 Jun
Sokol Ostroda
2 : 1 Blonianka Blonie
07 Jun
Sokol Ostroda
1 : 2 Tomaszow Mazowiecki
24 May
Sokol Ostroda
2 : 2 Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
13 May
Sokol Ostroda
1 : 2 Legionowo
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Tomaszow Mazowiecki
(Away) 03 Oct
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
1 : 2 Lidzbark Warmimski
26 Sept
Olimpia Elblag
1 : 2 Tomaszow Mazowiecki
18 Sept
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
1 : 2 Swit Mazowiecki
11 Sept
Zabkovia Zabki
4 : 2 Tomaszow Mazowiecki
05 Sept
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
0 : 2 Troszyn
Page 1 of 8
26 Sept
Olimpia Elblag
1 : 2 Tomaszow Mazowiecki
11 Sept
Zabkovia Zabki
4 : 2 Tomaszow Mazowiecki
29 Aug
Jagiellonia II
1 : 1 Tomaszow Mazowiecki
19 Aug
MKS Mlawa
2 : 3 Tomaszow Mazowiecki
08 Aug
Plock II
2 : 1 Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LKS Lodz II | 34 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 76:41 | 68 |
| 2 | Legionowo | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 71:43 | 64 |
| 3 | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 62:39 | 64 |
| 4 | Swit Mazowiecki | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 66:45 | 61 |
| 5 | Legia II | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 66:48 | 55 |
| 6 | Tomaszow Mazowiecki | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 51:43 | 55 |
| 7 | Unia Skierniewice | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 41:38 | 53 |
| 8 | MKS Mlawa | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 83:71 | 52 |
| 9 | Jagiellonia II | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 65:54 | 49 |
| 10 | Pilica Bialobrzegi | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 53:55 | 45 |
| 11 | Pelikan | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 56:52 | 45 |
| 12 | Sokol Ostroda | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 49:71 | 36 |
| 13 | Olimpia Zambrow | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 40:63 | 36 |
| 14 | Bron Radom | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 60:76 | 35 |
| 15 | Warta Sieradz | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 39:53 | 34 |
| 16 | Concordia Elblag | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 38:61 | 33 |
| 17 | Blonianka Blonie | 34 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 35:68 | 30 |
| 18 | Ursus Warszawa | 34 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 42:72 | 25 |
Promotion - Division 2 2023/2024 (Main)
