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Solomon Islands vs Papua New Guinea

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Friendly International 2024 National Stadium
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AI Match Summary

Solomon Islands play Papua New Guinea in the Friendly International 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Solomon Islands averaged 1.69 goals scored and 1.79 conceded. Papua New Guinea averaged 1.68 goals scored and 1.71 conceded. In past meetings, Solomon Islands won 3, Papua New Guinea won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Nov 13, 2025 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for Solomon Islands and 1.56 for Papua New Guinea. This points to a Papua New Guinea double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Solomon Islands
15%
Draws
43%
Papua New Guinea
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Papua New Guinea

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Solomon Islands picked up more points recently compared to Papua New Guinea.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 1.56 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 60%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 77%
Over 2.5 Goals 60%
Over 3.5 Goals 36%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%
Solomon Islands Clean Sheet 15%
Papua New Guinea Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 69%
Second Half Goal 73%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Solomon Islands Papua New Guinea
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 12 13
Draws 2 6
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 1.69 1.68
Goals Conceded 1.79 1.71
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 13, 2025 Friendly International
Papua New Guinea vs Solomon Islands
1:0
Dec 18, 2024 Friendly International
Solomon Islands vs Papua New Guinea
2:3
Nov 17, 2024 World Championship
Papua New Guinea vs Solomon Islands
1:2
Oct 8, 2023 Friendly International
Papua New Guinea vs Solomon Islands
1:3
Mar 27, 2022 World Championship
Solomon Islands vs Papua New Guinea
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Solomon Islands Compare

Top Goalscorer Boyers R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Keana D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Papua New Guinea Compare

Top Goalscorer Komolong A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Rani S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Solomon Islands 41 / 100
Papua New Guinea 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Solomon Islands Papua New Guinea

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Papua New Guinea or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23.5%
2.94
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.85
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Solomon Islands attacking → ← attacking Papua New Guinea

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solomon Islands scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Papua New Guinea let in goals in 68% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Solomon Islands went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Papua New Guinea lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

38 Points in last 5 45
1.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13