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Somerset vs Burnie United

Australia Australia

Tasmania Northern Championship
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AI Match Summary

The Tasmania Northern Championship game between Somerset and Burnie United finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Somerset.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Somerset
15%
Draws
57%
Burnie United
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Burnie United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Somerset carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Burnie United a 57% chance of winning this.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Somerset have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Somerset Clean Sheet 10%
Burnie United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Somerset Burnie United
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 12 8
Draws 2 2
Losses 15 20
Goals Scored 2.1 2.3
Goals Conceded 2.97 3.87
Expected Goals (xG) 2.94 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Tasmania Northern Championship
Somerset vs Burnie United
2:0
May 30, 2026 Tasmania Northern Championship
Burnie United vs Somerset
0:5
Mar 21, 2026 Tasmania Northern Championship
Somerset vs Burnie United
3:1
Aug 23, 2025 Tasmania Northern Championship
Burnie United vs Somerset
0:4
Jun 28, 2025 Tasmania Northern Championship
Somerset vs Burnie United
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Somerset 10 / 100
Burnie United 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Somerset Burnie United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Burnie United Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Burnie United let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Attacking prowess: Somerset scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Difficult form: Burnie United registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Somerset VS Burnie United
1.88 Goals Scored 2.13
2.38 Goals Conceded 4
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Somerset

(Home)
29 Aug
Launceston City U21
2 : 0
Somerset
22 Aug
Somerset
0 : 8
Devonport U21
15 Aug
Somerset
0 : 11
Northern Rangers
08 Aug
Ulverstone U21
2 : 0
Somerset
01 Aug
Somerset
2 : 0
Burnie United
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Burnie United

(Away)
29 Aug
Riverside Olympic U21
0 : 3
Burnie United
22 Aug
Burnie United
3 : 0
Launceston City U21
15 Aug
Burnie United
0 : 2
Ulverstone U21
08 Aug
Burnie United
4 : 10
Northern Rangers
01 Aug
Somerset
2 : 0
Burnie United
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Northern Rangers 21 20 0 1 130:24 60
2 Devonport U21 21 16 2 3 107:27 50
3 Ulverstone U21 20 11 3 6 49:38 36
4 Launceston City U21 20 9 0 11 32:39 27
5 Somerset 20 7 2 11 40:59 23
6 Burnie United 21 7 2 12 52:79 23
7 Riverside Olympic U21 20 5 0 15 28:76 15
8 Launceston United U21 21 2 1 18 19:115 7
Promotion - NPL Tasmania 2027 (Main)