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Somorrostro vs CD Ariznabarra

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Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021 game between Somorrostro and CD Ariznabarra finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Somorrostro
20%
Draws
23%
CD Ariznabarra
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Somorrostro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Somorrostro come out ahead of CD Ariznabarra on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Somorrostro's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Somorrostro Clean Sheet 20%
CD Ariznabarra Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Somorrostro CD Ariznabarra
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 5
Draws 9 9
Losses 13 16
Goals Scored 1.23 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 5, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Somorrostro vs CD Ariznabarra
1:1
May 2, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
CD Ariznabarra vs Somorrostro
4:2
Mar 7, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Somorrostro vs CD Ariznabarra
3:0
Oct 13, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
CD Ariznabarra vs Somorrostro
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Somorrostro 85 / 100
CD Ariznabarra 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Somorrostro CD Ariznabarra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Somorrostro Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CD Ariznabarra let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Somorrostro's goal record stands at 60% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Somorrostro went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Somorrostro VS CD Ariznabarra
1.38 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Somorrostro

(Home)
29 Aug
Santurtzi
1 : 3
Somorrostro
12 Jun
Sodupe
1 : 3
Somorrostro
05 Jun
Somorrostro
1 : 1
CD Ariznabarra
29 May
Lagun Onak
2 : 1
Somorrostro
22 May
Somorrostro
3 : 0
Santurtzi
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CD Ariznabarra

(Away)
12 Jun
CD Ariznabarra
2 : 3
Balmaseda
05 Jun
Somorrostro
1 : 1
CD Ariznabarra
29 May
CD Ariznabarra
5 : 1
Urgatzi
22 May
Tolosa
4 : 0
CD Ariznabarra
16 May
CD Ariznabarra
1 : 2
Aurrera Ondarroa
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