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Sona vs Desenzano Calvina - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Cargiolli A.
34' Event
Bardelloni E.
41' Event
Pinardi N.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group B 2022/2023 game between Sona and Desenzano Calvina finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Desenzano Calvina.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Sona
35%
Draws
32%
Desenzano Calvina
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Desenzano Calvina carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Sona are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 22%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Sona Clean Sheet 19%
Desenzano Calvina Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sona Desenzano Calvina
Matches Played 30 36
Wins 5 19
Draws 8 12
Losses 17 5
Goals Scored 0.8 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.63 0.69
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 1.30
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 8, 2023 Serie D - Group B
Sona vs Desenzano Calvina
2:3
Sep 4, 2022 Serie D - Group B
Desenzano Calvina vs Sona
3:0
May 15, 2022 Serie D - Group B
Desenzano Calvina vs Sona
0:0
Jan 23, 2022 Serie D - Group B
Sona vs Desenzano Calvina
1:2
Mar 21, 2021 Serie D - Group B
Sona vs Desenzano Calvina
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sona Compare

Top Goalscorer Cargiolli A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Coulibaly B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.71
Avg xA / game 0.46

Desenzano Calvina Compare

Top Goalscorer Bardelloni E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pinardi N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.18
Avg xA / game 0.72

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sona 36 / 100
Desenzano Calvina 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sona Desenzano Calvina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Sona went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Sona found the back of the net in 50% of recent matches (30 games).

Desenzano Calvina's defensive record shows goals conceded in 53% of 36 matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Desenzano Calvina
0 Goals Scored 1.5
0 Goals Conceded 0.63
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Sona

(Home)
07 May
Ponte San Pietro
3 : 3
Sona
30 Apr
Sona
1 : 1
Real Calepina
23 Apr
Sona
3 : 2
Varesina
16 Apr
Seregno Calcio
3 : 1
Sona
06 Apr
Sona
2 : 0
Caronnese
Page 1 of 6

Desenzano Calvina

(Away)
03 Oct
Folgore Caratese
1 : 2
Desenzano Calvina
26 Sept
Desenzano Calvina
0 : 0
Juventus U23
21 Sept
Treviso
0 : 0
Desenzano Calvina
17 Sept
Desenzano Calvina
1 : 3
Lecco
13 Sept
Arzignano
1 : 2
Desenzano Calvina
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lumezzane 34 24 5 5 67:20 77
2 Alcione Milano 34 21 8 5 67:31 71
3 USD Casatese 34 16 11 7 38:26 59
4 Arconatese 34 16 9 9 54:37 57
5 Desenzano Calvina 34 15 8 11 47:41 53
6 Franciacorta 34 13 11 10 44:43 50
7 Ponte San Pietro 34 11 16 7 47:38 49
8 Ciserano-Bergamo 34 14 6 14 42:40 48
9 Brusaporto 34 12 11 11 43:38 47
10 Varesina 34 13 7 14 47:50 46
11 Villa Valle 34 9 14 11 40:47 41
12 Real Calepina 34 7 18 9 30:33 39
13 Folgore Caratese 34 10 9 15 37:46 39
14 Seregno Calcio 34 10 11 13 42:56 38
15 Breno 34 10 7 17 35:50 37
16 Varese FC 34 8 9 17 30:46 33
17 Sona 34 6 9 19 28:56 27
18 Caronnese 34 2 9 23 24:64 15
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2022/2023 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B 2022/2023 (Play Out)