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Sorriso EC vs Cuiaba - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
06:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 4-0. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. This one's hard to separate. Cuiaba have shipped 0.87 goals a game lately, while Sorriso EC have conceded 1.27 and scored 2.47. Past meetings favor Cuiaba slightly — 0-1-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 17, 2026, ending 4:0. Model xG sits at 1.27 vs 1.51, favoring Cuiaba. The prediction model leans Draw; both defenses could hold firm.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Sorriso EC
15%
Draws
57%
Cuiaba
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Cuiaba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Cuiaba have won more games recently than Sorriso EC.
  • Sorriso EC are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Cuiaba arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 94%
Over 1.5 Goals 84%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Sorriso EC Clean Sheet 15%
Cuiaba Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sorriso EC Cuiaba
Matches Played 15 31
Wins 8 16
Draws 2 8
Losses 5 7
Goals Scored 2.47 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.27 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.27 1.51
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 17, 2026 Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Cuiaba vs Sorriso EC
4:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sorriso EC 41 / 100
Cuiaba 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sorriso EC Cuiaba

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sorriso EC's goal record stands at 93% scoring rate across 15 recent games.

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Cuiaba's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 31 matches.

Recent resilience: Sorriso EC stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sorriso EC VS Cuiaba
1.8 Goals Scored 1.63
1.4 Goals Conceded 0.75
80% Over 1.5 88%
80% Over 2.5 38%
60% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Sorriso EC

(Home)
03 Oct
Sorriso EC
4 : 1
Campo Novo
27 Sept
Campo Novo
0 : 4
Sorriso EC
17 Sept
Cuiaba
4 : 0
Sorriso EC
12 Sept
Sorriso EC
1 : 2
Cacerense
21 May
Sorriso EC
2 : 3
Cacerense
Page 1 of 3

Cuiaba

(Away)
03 Oct
Cuiaba
2 : 0
Ponte Preta
03 Oct
Cuiaba
2 : 0
Cacerense
27 Sept
CRB
3 : 0
Cuiaba
26 Sept
Cacerense
2 : 5
Cuiaba
22 Sept
Cuiaba
3 : 0
Nautico
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Uniao Rondonopolis 5 3 1 1 6:6 10
2 Chapada 4 2 1 1 8:4 7
3 Santa Cruz MT 4 2 0 2 8:6 6
4 Várzea Grande EC 4 2 0 2 9:10 6
5 Uirapuru 5 0 2 3 5:10 2
Promotion - Copa FMF (Mato Grosso) (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cuiaba 4 4 0 0 13:2 12
2 Sorriso EC 4 2 0 2 9:7 6
3 Cacerense 4 2 0 2 7:10 6
4 Campo Novo 4 0 0 4 3:13 0
Promotion - Copa FMF (Mato Grosso) (Play Offs)