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Sorriso EC vs Santa Cruz MT - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Matogrossense 2 2025
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AI Match Summary

The Matogrossense 2 2025 game between Sorriso EC and Santa Cruz MT finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sorriso EC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Sorriso EC
15%
Draws
42%
Santa Cruz MT
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sorriso EC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Sorriso EC carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Sorriso EC's way, sitting at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Sorriso EC Clean Sheet 19%
Santa Cruz MT Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sorriso EC Santa Cruz MT
Matches Played 15 21
Wins 8 7
Draws 2 5
Losses 5 9
Goals Scored 2.47 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.27 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Matogrossense 2
Santa Cruz MT vs Sorriso EC
1:1
Jun 28, 2025 Matogrossense 2
Sorriso EC vs Santa Cruz MT
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sorriso EC 42 / 100
Santa Cruz MT 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sorriso EC Santa Cruz MT

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sorriso EC's goal record stands at 93% scoring rate across 15 recent games.

Santa Cruz MT's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 21 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.

Santa Cruz MT lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sorriso EC VS Santa Cruz MT
2.75 Goals Scored 0.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 50%
88% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Sorriso EC

(Home)
03 Oct
Sorriso EC
4 : 1
Campo Novo
27 Sept
Campo Novo
0 : 4
Sorriso EC
17 Sept
Cuiaba
4 : 0
Sorriso EC
12 Sept
Sorriso EC
1 : 2
Cacerense
21 May
Sorriso EC
2 : 3
Cacerense
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Santa Cruz MT

(Away)
07 Oct
Uniao Rondonopolis
1 : 0
Santa Cruz MT
30 Sept
Chapada
2 : 0
Santa Cruz MT
27 Sept
Santa Cruz MT
4 : 0
Uniao Rondonopolis
19 Sept
Uirapuru
2 : 3
Santa Cruz MT
13 Sept
Santa Cruz MT
1 : 2
Várzea Grande EC
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sorriso EC 4 4 0 0 12:3 12
2 Chapada 4 2 1 1 10:5 7
3 Santa Cruz MT 4 2 1 1 8:4 7
4 Campo Novo 4 1 0 3 5:12 3
5 Atletico MT 4 0 0 4 4:15 0
6 Juara 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Matogrossense 2 2025 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cacerense 4 3 1 0 8:2 10
2 Várzea Grande EC 4 2 1 1 8:8 7
3 Dom Bosco 4 2 0 2 7:5 6
4 Uirapuru 4 1 0 3 7:14 3
5 Acao 4 1 0 3 7:8 3
Promotion - Matogrossense 2 2025 (Play Offs)