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Sorriso EC vs Várzea Grande EC

Brazil Brazil

Matogrossense 2 2025
Sat, Jul 19, 2025
1 - 1
10:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-1. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Sorriso EC
15%
Draws
59%
Várzea Grande EC
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Várzea Grande EC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Várzea Grande EC come out ahead of Sorriso EC on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Sorriso EC's way, sitting at 42%.
  • Várzea Grande EC arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Sorriso EC Clean Sheet 20%
Várzea Grande EC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sorriso EC Várzea Grande EC
Matches Played 14 29
Wins 7 8
Draws 2 6
Losses 5 15
Goals Scored 2.36 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.29 1.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 19, 2025 Matogrossense 2
Sorriso EC vs Várzea Grande EC
1:1
Jul 12, 2025 Matogrossense 2
Várzea Grande EC vs Sorriso EC
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sorriso EC 42 / 100
Várzea Grande EC 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sorriso EC Várzea Grande EC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Sorriso EC scored in 93% of their last 14 outings.

Várzea Grande EC let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.

Sorriso EC has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sorriso EC VS Várzea Grande EC
2.38 Goals Scored 0.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Sorriso EC

(Home)
27 Sept
Campo Novo
0 : 4
Sorriso EC
17 Sept
Cuiaba
4 : 0
Sorriso EC
12 Sept
Sorriso EC
1 : 2
Cacerense
21 May
Sorriso EC
2 : 3
Cacerense
17 May
Santa Cruz MT
1 : 1
Sorriso EC
Page 1 of 3

Várzea Grande EC

(Away)
27 Sept
Várzea Grande EC
2 : 5
Chapada
23 Sept
Uirapuru
1 : 4
Várzea Grande EC
20 Sept
Várzea Grande EC
1 : 3
Uniao Rondonopolis
13 Sept
Santa Cruz MT
1 : 2
Várzea Grande EC
08 Feb
Cuiaba
0 : 1
Várzea Grande EC
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Sorriso EC 2
Várzea Grande EC 3
Cacerense 0
Chapada 6
Final
Várzea Grande EC 1
Chapada 2