Sport Picks
South Melbourne vs Queensland Lions - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Australia
Australia Cup Lakeside Stadium, Melbourne 
Match Events
23'
23'
Hart-Phillips J.
Assist: Broderick L.
46'
46'
Sub
Retre P. In: Juach B.
Out: Retre P.
48'
48'
Ponting L.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 3-1. The second leg ended 3-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
36%
15%
49%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Queensland Lions
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
49%
/ Medium Confidence
- Queensland Lions carry the better recent record into this one.
- 49% — that's where the model lands on Queensland Lions taking it.
- Queensland Lions arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor South Melbourne, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
South Melbourne Clean Sheet 11%
Queensland Lions Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | South Melbourne | Queensland Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 36 | 30 |
| Wins | 21 | 24 |
| Draws | 4 | 2 |
| Losses | 11 | 4 |
| Goals Scored | 2.28 | 2.53 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.44 | 0.93 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.25 | 1.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 15, 2026 Australia Cup
South Melbourne vs Queensland Lions
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
South Melbourne Compare
Top Goalscorer Juach B.
3 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63
Queensland Lions Compare
Top Goalscorer Hart-Phillips J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
South Melbourne 10 / 100
Queensland Lions 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
South Melbourne Queensland Lions
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Queensland Lions Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
South Melbourne found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (36 games).
H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.
South Melbourne has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Queensland Lions has conceded goals in 53% of their last 30 outings.
Scoring Trends
South Melbourne VS Queensland Lions
2 Goals Scored 2.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
South Melbourne
(Home) 15 Sept
South Melbourne
3 : 1 Queensland Lions
11 Sept
Oakleigh Cannons
2 : 1 South Melbourne
06 Sept
South Melbourne
2 : 1 Heidelberg Utd
29 Aug
George Cross
1 : 0 South Melbourne
26 Aug
Preston Lions
1 : 2 South Melbourne
Page 1 of 8
15 Sept
South Melbourne
3 : 1 Queensland Lions
06 Sept
South Melbourne
2 : 1 Heidelberg Utd
23 Aug
South Melbourne
1 : 2 Heidelberg Utd
09 Aug
South Melbourne
4 : 3 Fremantle City
02 Aug
South Melbourne
2 : 0 St Albans
Page 1 of 5
Queensland Lions
(Away) 15 Sept
South Melbourne
3 : 1 Queensland Lions
12 Sept
Queensland Lions
1 : 0 Peninsula
30 Aug
Queensland Lions
4 : 1 Peninsula
25 Aug
Queensland Lions
4 : 0 North Sunshine Eagles
14 Aug
Moreton City Excelsior
0 : 2 Queensland Lions
Page 1 of 6
15 Sept
South Melbourne
3 : 1 Queensland Lions
14 Aug
Moreton City Excelsior
0 : 2 Queensland Lions
18 Jul
Gold Coast Utd
0 : 1 Queensland Lions
07 Jul
Gold Coast Knights SC
2 : 1 Queensland Lions
06 Jun
Brisbane City
0 : 4 Queensland Lions
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Sydney Olympic 0
Brisbane Roar 3
Bayswater 1
Sydney FC 5
Rochedale 1
SD Raiders 2
Azzurri United 0
Macarthur FC 3
APIA Leichhardt 2
Peninsula 1
Sydney Utd 2
Central Coast 1
Tigers FC 0
Western Sydney Wanderers 2
Kingborough Lions 0
Melbourne Victory 4
Marlin Coast 0
Brunswick Juventus 4
Preston Lions 3
Newcastle Jets 2
South Melbourne 2
Adelaide Utd 1
Maitland 1
Fremantle City 2
Weston Workers Bears 0
Melbourne City 3
Queensland Lions 2
Perth Glory 1
FK Beograd 2
North Sunshine Eagles 3
Cumberland United 0
Heidelberg Utd 3
1/8-finals
Brisbane Roar 2
Sydney FC 4
SD Raiders 2
Macarthur FC 1
APIA Leichhardt 2
Sydney Utd 1
Western Sydney Wanderers 1
Melbourne Victory 2
Brunswick Juventus 1
Preston Lions 4
South Melbourne 4
Fremantle City 3
Melbourne City 0
Queensland Lions 2
North Sunshine Eagles 1
Heidelberg Utd 0
Quarter-finals
Sydney FC 1
SD Raiders 0
APIA Leichhardt 0
Melbourne Victory 1
Preston Lions 1
South Melbourne 2
Queensland Lions 4
North Sunshine Eagles 0
Semi-finals
Sydney FC 0
Melbourne Victory 2
South Melbourne 3
Queensland Lions 1
Final
Melbourne Victory -
South Melbourne -
