Sport Picks

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South Melbourne vs Vanuatu United

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

OFC Pro League
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Swibel J.
32' Event
Swibel J.
39' Event
Mikkola M.

AI Match Summary

South Melbourne in this OFC Pro League tie, finishing 4-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
South Melbourne
22%
Draws
18%
Vanuatu United
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: South Melbourne

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Vanuatu United haven't matched South Melbourne's recent run of results.
  • 60% — that's where the model lands on South Melbourne taking it.
  • South Melbourne have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor South Melbourne, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 88%).
  • History favors South Melbourne here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 88%
Over 3.5 Goals 77.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 35%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.400000000000006%
South Melbourne Clean Sheet 68%
Vanuatu United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric South Melbourne Vanuatu United
Matches Played 34 19
Wins 17 6
Draws 5 5
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 1.75 2
Goals Conceded 2.38 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.38 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 20, 2026 OFC Pro League
South Melbourne vs Vanuatu United
4:0
Mar 15, 2026 OFC Pro League
Vanuatu United vs South Melbourne
2:0
Feb 8, 2026 OFC Pro League
South Melbourne vs Vanuatu United
5:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

South Melbourne Compare

Top Goalscorer Swibel J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Mikkola M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Vanuatu United Compare

Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

South Melbourne 68 / 100
Vanuatu United 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
South Melbourne Vanuatu United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SOU Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.33 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: South Melbourne scored in 79% of their last 34 outings.

Vanuatu United's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 19 matches.

South Melbourne went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

South Melbourne VS Vanuatu United
1.75 Goals Scored 2
2.38 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 100%
75% Over 3.5 80%

Recent Form & Match History

South Melbourne

(Home)
24 Jul
Oakleigh Cannons
1 : 2
South Melbourne
18 Jul
South Melbourne
0 : 0
Preston Lions
10 Jul
Dandenong City SC
0 : 2
South Melbourne
05 Jul
South Melbourne
1 : 0
Dandenong Thunder
28 Jun
South Melbourne
1 : 2
Green Gully
Page 1 of 7

Vanuatu United

(Away)
20 May
South Melbourne
4 : 0
Vanuatu United
17 May
Bula
1 : 2
Vanuatu United
13 May
Tahiti United
2 : 2
Vanuatu United
10 May
Solomon Kings
2 : 3
Vanuatu United
07 May
Vanuatu United
3 : 1
PNG Hekari
Page 1 of 4

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
South Melbourne-
TBD-
Bula1
Vanuatu United2
Auckland FC 2-
TBD-
TBD-
South Island United-
Semi-finals
South Melbourne4
Vanuatu United0
Auckland FC 21
South Island United0
Final
South Melbourne1
Auckland FC 22