Sport Picks

Stadium Background

South Melbourne vs Vanuatu United

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

OFC Pro League
South Melbourne Logo

South Melbourne

4 - 0
FT
Vanuatu United Logo

Vanuatu United

Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Swibel J.
32' Event
Swibel J.
39' Event
Mikkola M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 4-0. This leg finished 4-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
South Melbourne
15%
Draws
45%
Vanuatu United
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Vanuatu United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Vanuatu United haven't matched South Melbourne's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • South Melbourne have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor South Melbourne, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors South Melbourne here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.2%
South Melbourne Clean Sheet 68%
Vanuatu United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric South Melbourne Vanuatu United
Matches Played 43 21
Wins 23 8
Draws 6 5
Losses 14 8
Goals Scored 2.19 1.62
Goals Conceded 1.44 1.76
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 20, 2026 OFC Pro League
South Melbourne vs Vanuatu United
4:0
Mar 15, 2026 OFC Pro League
Vanuatu United vs South Melbourne
2:0
Feb 8, 2026 OFC Pro League
South Melbourne vs Vanuatu United
5:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

South Melbourne Compare

Top Goalscorer Swibel J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Mikkola M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Vanuatu United Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

South Melbourne 41 / 100
Vanuatu United 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
South Melbourne Vanuatu United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick South Melbourne Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

South Melbourne found the back of the net in 84% of recent matches (43 games).

H2H data points to 4.33 goals as a typical output.

Vanuatu United's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 21 matches.

South Melbourne went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

South Melbourne VS Vanuatu United
1.75 Goals Scored 2
1 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

South Melbourne

(Home)
15 Sept
South Melbourne
3 : 1
Queensland Lions
11 Sept
Oakleigh Cannons
2 : 1
South Melbourne
06 Sept
South Melbourne
2 : 1
Heidelberg Utd
29 Aug
George Cross
1 : 0
South Melbourne
26 Aug
Preston Lions
1 : 2
South Melbourne
Page 1 of 9

Vanuatu United

(Away)
12 Sept
Vanuatu United
1 : 0
Central Coast
09 Sept
Vanuatu United
3 : 2
Central Coast
20 May
South Melbourne
4 : 0
Vanuatu United
17 May
Bula
1 : 2
Vanuatu United
13 May
Tahiti United
2 : 2
Vanuatu United
Page 1 of 5

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
South Melbourne -
TBD -
Bula 1
Vanuatu United 2
Auckland FC 2 -
TBD -
TBD -
South Island United -
Semi-finals
South Melbourne 4
Vanuatu United 0
Auckland FC 2 1
South Island United 0
Final
South Melbourne 1
Auckland FC 2 2