Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sp. Luqueno vs Libertad Asuncion

Paraguay Paraguay

Copa de Primera Estadio Feliciano Cáceres, Luque
Sp. Luqueno Logo

Sp. Luqueno

2 - 3
FT
Libertad Asuncion Logo

Libertad Asuncion

Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Sub
Maiz A. In: Bogado G.
Out: Maiz A.
25' Event
Diaz S.
Assist: Maggi I.
29' Event
Melgarejo L.
Assist: Fretes A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-2. The second leg ended 2-3.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Sp. Luqueno
15%
Draws
53%
Libertad Asuncion
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Libertad Asuncion

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Libertad Asuncion come out ahead of Sp. Luqueno on wins alone.
  • 53% — that's where the model lands on Libertad Asuncion taking it.
  • Libertad Asuncion arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Libertad Asuncion, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Libertad Asuncion have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Sp. Luqueno Clean Sheet 16%
Libertad Asuncion Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sp. Luqueno Libertad Asuncion
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 8 14
Draws 5 4
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 1.11 1.4
Goals Conceded 1.57 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 Copa de Primera
Sp. Luqueno vs Libertad Asuncion
1:2
May 10, 2026 Copa de Primera
Sp. Luqueno vs Libertad Asuncion
2:3
Mar 7, 2026 Copa de Primera
Libertad Asuncion vs Sp. Luqueno
1:0
Sep 13, 2025 Copa de Primera
Sp. Luqueno vs Libertad Asuncion
1:4
Jul 5, 2025 Copa de Primera
Libertad Asuncion vs Sp. Luqueno
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sp. Luqueno Compare

Top Goalscorer Diaz S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Quintana S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Libertad Asuncion Compare

Top Goalscorer Melgarejo L.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Fretes A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sp. Luqueno 28 / 100
Libertad Asuncion 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sp. Luqueno Libertad Asuncion

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Libertad Asuncion Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sp. Luqueno found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (28 games).

Defensive concern: Libertad Asuncion conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Sp. Luqueno remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Sp. Luqueno VS Libertad Asuncion
1 Goals Scored 1.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Sp. Luqueno

(Home)
01 Oct
Olimpia Asuncion
1 : 2
Sp. Luqueno
25 Sept
Sp. Luqueno
0 : 1
Guarani
20 Sept
Sp. Luqueno
1 : 0
Recoleta
13 Sept
Olimpia Asuncion
3 : 0
Sp. Luqueno
06 Sept
Sp. Luqueno
1 : 2
Sportivo Ameliano
Page 1 of 6

Libertad Asuncion

(Away)
05 Oct
Recoleta
1 : 2
Libertad Asuncion
28 Sept
Libertad Asuncion
0 : 1
Olimpia Asuncion
23 Sept
Fernando de la Mora
1 : 2
Libertad Asuncion
19 Sept
Libertad Asuncion
1 : 1
Sportivo Ameliano
11 Sept
2 de Mayo
0 : 2
Libertad Asuncion
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Olimpia Asuncion 22 15 4 3 37:17 49
2 Nacional Asuncion 22 10 9 3 31:22 39
3 Cerro Porteno 22 11 5 6 30:22 38
4 Sportivo Ameliano 22 8 9 5 27:21 33
5 Sportivo Trinidense 22 8 8 6 30:24 32
6 Libertad Asuncion 22 9 4 9 34:26 31
7 Guarani 22 7 8 7 27:23 29
8 Recoleta 22 8 4 10 35:32 28
9 Rubio Nu 22 6 5 11 15:26 23
10 2 de Mayo 22 5 7 10 18:35 22
11 Sp. Luqueno 22 5 5 12 24:33 20
12 San Lorenzo 22 3 6 13 14:41 15
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)