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Sp. Luqueno vs Nacional Asuncion - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Paraguay Paraguay

Copa de Primera Estadio Feliciano Cáceres, Luque
Thu, Nov 5, 2026
VS
09:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 2-0. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. Form suggests where the edge lies here. Sp. Luqueno have averaged 1.14 scored and 1.62 conceded recently, against Nacional Asuncion's 1.38 scored and 0.86 conceded. Past meetings favor Nacional Asuncion slightly — 1-3-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Aug 24, 2026, ending 2:0. xG projections (0.81 - 1.69) back Nacional Asuncion to edge this. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Sp. Luqueno
20%
Draws
46%
Nacional Asuncion
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Nacional Asuncion

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Sp. Luqueno haven't matched Nacional Asuncion's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Nacional Asuncion a 46% chance of winning this.
  • Nacional Asuncion arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Nacional Asuncion, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Sp. Luqueno Clean Sheet 13%
Nacional Asuncion Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sp. Luqueno Nacional Asuncion
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 13
Draws 5 11
Losses 16 5
Goals Scored 1.14 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.62 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 24, 2026 Copa de Primera
Nacional Asuncion vs Sp. Luqueno
2:0
Mar 27, 2026 Copa de Primera
Nacional Asuncion vs Sp. Luqueno
3:2
Jan 27, 2026 Copa de Primera
Sp. Luqueno vs Nacional Asuncion
1:2
Oct 12, 2025 Copa de Primera
Nacional Asuncion vs Sp. Luqueno
1:1
Jul 29, 2025 Copa de Primera
Sp. Luqueno vs Nacional Asuncion
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sp. Luqueno 27 / 100
Nacional Asuncion 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sp. Luqueno Nacional Asuncion

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nacional Asuncion Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sp. Luqueno's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Nacional Asuncion has conceded goals in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Sp. Luqueno has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sp. Luqueno VS Nacional Asuncion
1 Goals Scored 1.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Sp. Luqueno

(Home)
05 Oct
Sportivo Trinidense
3 : 2
Sp. Luqueno
01 Oct
Olimpia Asuncion
1 : 2
Sp. Luqueno
25 Sept
Sp. Luqueno
0 : 1
Guarani
20 Sept
Sp. Luqueno
1 : 0
Recoleta
13 Sept
Olimpia Asuncion
3 : 0
Sp. Luqueno
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Nacional Asuncion

(Away)
06 Oct
Olimpia Asuncion
1 : 1
Nacional Asuncion
30 Sept
Independiente FBC
3 : 2
Nacional Asuncion
25 Sept
Nacional Asuncion
1 : 1
Sportivo Ameliano
18 Sept
Nacional Asuncion
3 : 0
2 de Mayo
13 Sept
Rubio Nu
0 : 1
Nacional Asuncion
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Olimpia Asuncion 13 8 2 3 22:10 26
2 Libertad Asuncion 13 8 2 3 21:14 26
3 2 de Mayo 13 7 4 2 16:13 25
4 Nacional Asuncion 13 6 5 2 20:8 23
5 Sportivo Trinidense 13 7 2 4 23:13 23
6 Guarani 13 5 6 2 14:10 21
7 Sportivo Ameliano 13 4 6 3 15:15 18
8 Cerro Porteno 13 5 2 6 15:14 17
9 Sp. Luqueno 13 4 1 8 14:24 13
10 Rubio Nu 13 3 3 7 15:24 12
11 Recoleta 13 2 2 9 14:26 8
12 San Lorenzo 13 0 3 10 4:22 3
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)