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Stadium Background

SP Villafranca vs Jaraiz

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

SP Villafranca play Jaraiz in the Tercera RFEF - Group 14. It looks like a close match. Recently, SP Villafranca averaged 1.38 goals scored and 0.75 conceded. Jaraiz averaged 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. In past meetings, SP Villafranca won 2, Jaraiz won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 15, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for SP Villafranca and 1.00 for Jaraiz. This points to a SP Villafranca double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
SP Villafranca
11%
Draws
9%
Jaraiz
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: SP Villafranca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • SP Villafranca has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Jaraiz.
  • Model forecasts a 80% win probability edge for SP Villafranca.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Tercera RFEF - Group 14 provide steady trend data.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%
SP Villafranca Clean Sheet 68%
Jaraiz Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SP Villafranca Jaraiz
Matches Played 32 32
Wins 16 14
Draws 6 11
Losses 10 7
Goals Scored 1.38 1.25
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
SP Villafranca vs Jaraiz
2:1
Nov 2, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jaraiz vs SP Villafranca
4:1
May 4, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
SP Villafranca vs Jaraiz
1:2
Dec 22, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jaraiz vs SP Villafranca
4:1
Jan 21, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jaraiz vs SP Villafranca
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SP Villafranca Compare

Top Goalscorer Minon J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kiba A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Jaraiz Compare

Top Goalscorer Cruz L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SP Villafranca 86 / 100
Jaraiz 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SP Villafranca Jaraiz

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VIL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SP Villafranca scored in 81% of their last 32 games.

Jaraiz let in goals in 63% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

SP Villafranca went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Jaraiz lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

SP Villafranca VS Jaraiz
1.38 Goals Scored 1.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Don Benito34218570:2271
2CD Badajoz34235664:2771
3Moralo341711654:3262
4CD Azuaga34188853:3162
5Jaraiz341611753:3359
6Cabeza del Buey341512745:2957
7SP Villafranca341671145:4055
8Villanovense341581145:3653
9Montijo341371443:4246
10Jerez CF34817956:5141
11AD Llerenense341181535:4441
12Puebla de la Calzada349111435:4838
13Santa Amalia34971830:5234
14Gevora34891732:5333
15Pueblonuevo34961929:5533
16CD Diocesano346121633:6330
17Montehermoso34582124:6623
18CD Calamonte343131825:4722