Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Spaeri vs Samgurali

Georgia Georgia

Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga Spaeri Stadium, Tbilisi
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Krasovski D.
Assist: Gean Rodrigues
11' Event
Kokhreidze L.
Assist: Samkharadze G.
20'
Gilmore L.

AI Match Summary

The Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga game between Spaeri and Samgurali finished 3-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Samgurali.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Spaeri
30%
Draws
23%
Samgurali
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Spaeri

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Samgurali come out ahead of Spaeri on wins alone.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Spaeri Clean Sheet 12%
Samgurali Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Spaeri Samgurali
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 6 12
Draws 11 4
Losses 14 14
Goals Scored 1.35 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.58 1.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
Spaeri vs Samgurali
3:4
Jul 20, 2026 Club Friendly
Spaeri vs Samgurali
0:1
May 17, 2026 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
Samgurali vs Spaeri
0:0
Mar 16, 2026 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
Spaeri vs Samgurali
4:1
Jul 6, 2024 Club Friendly
Samgurali vs Spaeri
5:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Spaeri Compare

Top Goalscorer Kokhreidze L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Askurava T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Samgurali Compare

Top Goalscorer Krasovski D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bidzinashvili I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Spaeri 30 / 100
Samgurali 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Spaeri Samgurali

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Samgurali let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Spaeri's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Difficult form: Samgurali registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Spaeri VS Samgurali
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
2.13 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Spaeri

(Home)
21 Sept
Spaeri
1 : 4
Dila Gori
13 Sept
Iberia 1999
1 : 0
Spaeri
09 Sept
Spaeri
1 : 1
FC Rustavi
05 Sept
Meshakhte Tkibuli
2 : 2
Spaeri
30 Aug
Dinamo Batumi
3 : 0
Spaeri
Page 1 of 7

Samgurali

(Away)
19 Sept
Samgurali
2 : 3
Dinamo Tbilisi
14 Sept
Torpedo Kutaisi
3 : 2
Samgurali
09 Sept
Samgurali
1 : 3
Dila Gori
05 Sept
Iberia 1999
2 : 1
Samgurali
30 Aug
Samgurali
1 : 1
FC Rustavi
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dinamo Tbilisi 27 13 9 5 45:30 48
2 Dinamo Batumi 27 13 8 6 46:36 47
3 FC Rustavi 27 13 7 7 32:23 46
4 Iberia 1999 27 14 4 9 38:30 46
5 Dila Gori 27 12 4 11 38:30 40
6 Torpedo Kutaisi 27 9 9 9 43:34 36
7 Samgurali 27 9 5 13 38:52 32
8 Gagra 27 6 11 10 25:37 29
9 Spaeri 27 5 10 12 34:43 25
10 Meshakhte Tkibuli 27 2 11 14 20:44 17
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga (Relegation)
Relegation - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2 2027 (Main)