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Spain vs Germany

Europe Europe

Euro 2024 MHPArena
Fri, Jul 5, 2024
2 - 1
04:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Spain play Germany in the Euro 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Spain averaged 2.5 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Germany averaged 2.55 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. In past meetings, Spain won 2, Germany won 0, and they drew 3. Their last match on Jul 5, 2024 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Spain and 1.50 for Germany. This points to a Spain double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Spain
30%
Draws
30%
Germany
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Spain

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Spain picked up more points recently compared to Germany.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 67%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 84%
Over 2.5 Goals 67%
Over 3.5 Goals 40%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%
Spain Clean Sheet 16%
Germany Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 76%
Second Half Goal 80%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Spain Germany
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 23 19
Draws 6 4
Losses 1 6
Goals Scored 2.5 2.55
Goals Conceded 0.8 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.25 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 5, 2024 Euro
Spain vs Germany
2:1
Nov 27, 2022 World Championship
Spain vs Germany
1:1
Nov 17, 2020 UEFA Nations League
Spain vs Germany
6:0
Sep 3, 2020 UEFA Nations League
Germany vs Spain
1:1
Mar 26, 2020 Friendly International
Spain vs Germany
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Spain Compare

Top Goalscorer Olmo D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Merino M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Germany Compare

Top Goalscorer Wirtz F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.5
Avg xA / game 1.53

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Spain 39 / 100
Germany 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Spain Germany

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Spain or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +25.2%
3.13
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.9%
1.64
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Spain attacking → ← attacking Germany

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Spain scored in 90% of their last 30 games.

Germany let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Spain went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Germany lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

European tournament. Big stakes for both clubs, so expect a tense, high-pressure match.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

75 Points in last 5 61
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 2.75
0.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13